Opinion – Cecilia Machado: The unknowns of Auxílio Brasil

Apparently, the start of the federal government’s new social program, Auxílio Brasil, has been given. Last week, through a decree, the per capita income limits that characterize a situation of poverty (from R$ 178 to R$ 200) and extreme poverty (from R$ 89 to R$ 100) were readjusted. Both lines define eligibility for Bolsa Família, and will continue to be used in Auxílio Brasil.

The decree also updated the values ​​of benefits that families receive in Bolsa Família: from R$89 to R$100 for the basic benefit, R$41 to R$49 for the variable benefit and R$49 to R$56 for the youth benefit. With this update, the average Bolsa Família benefit will be R$ 217.18, an increase of 17.83% according to the calculations of the Ministry of Citizenship.

In practical terms, the decree begins to delineate the target audience of Auxílio Brasil, which is larger than Bolsa Família’s audience only because of the readjustment of the poverty lines. The increase in the average benefit should guide the transition to Brazil Aid, which began yesterday with the revocation of Bolsa Família. These adjustments are permanent and will be permanently incorporated into the new program.

But, despite the first payment of Auxílio Brasil to take place within the next few days, we know very little about it so far. The values ​​of the benefits that will comprise Auxílio Brasil are still largely unknown [até o momento em que este texto foi escrito; veja os valores aqui] , and several implementation details have yet to be defined. In the rush, Auxílio Brasil begins as if it were Bolsa Família, and only after all the uncertainty about how the program will work is resolved, the amount due is retroactively adjusted. The urgency is clearly associated with the electoral cycle, as the new program needs to start still in 2021.

It is a huge surprise to start a new social program without a clear assessment of the advantages over its successful predecessor. As previously detailed by me here in this space, Auxílio Brasil can improve Bolsa Família, but this depends on the increase in the value of transfers that will be made to families and on how the program increases the chance of social mobility for those who are in the program.

On the first front, there is talk of a minimum payment of R$400, but the complementation of values ​​still depends on the fiscal space that will be opened with the processing of the PEC of Precatórios. The PEC continues with an uncertain future, especially now that the Federal Supreme Court is questioning the rites used in its voting in the first round. In parallel, the rapporteur’s amendments — an instrument that makes the government’s legislative approvals feasible — were put under scrutiny. Other alternatives, such as extraordinary credits or decree of a state of public calamity, are even more difficult, as the first depends on TCU approval and the second on an understanding that the adverse and unexpected effects of the pandemic follow after the advance of vaccination and the reduction of cases and deaths in recent months.

On the second front, three months have passed since the publication of the provisional measure that instituted the Auxílio Brasil, but the values ​​of the new benefits of the program have not yet been disclosed. For example, Auxílio Brasil allows transfers to be greater in early childhood, but how much greater will this benefit be relative to others? Similarly, school sports assistance, junior scientific initiation scholarship, child citizen assistance and rural and urban productive inclusion assistance do not have specific implementation guidelines. It is also open how the average benefit will be adjusted to reach the minimum BRL 400: whether it will respect the rules of the new program or whether the increase will be made in a complementary manner, without taking into account the composition of the family, which dilutes the whole the advantage that a program focused and directed primarily to children has over others.

With no budget, no parameters and no clear benefits, the only certainty we have is that Auxílio Brasil adds more complexity and doubts to a social assistance network that for nearly two decades has worked to alleviate the poverty situation of many Brazilians.