The PEC on Fuels by Senator Carlos Fávaro (PSD-MT), classified as kamikaze by the Ministry of Economy for its potential billion-dollar impact on public accounts, is also the target of harsh criticism from large investors.
The fuel exemption proposal was described as a completely wrong and populist measure by the chief economist of the Verde Asset manager, Daniel Leichsenring. According to him, it is an attempt by the government to reverse the “absolute unpopularity”.
“The proposal to eliminate fuel taxes is a complete raving, and does not resist 1 minute of considerations about its quality or convenience”, writes the economist, in the letter of management of the funds of Verde Asset released this Tuesday.
This Tuesday (8), the Brazilian Stock Exchange, the B3, operates in decline, while the dollar and future interest rates advance, also under the influence of the minutes of the more harsh tone of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BC (Central bank).
Leichsenring says in his text that the governments of Bolsonaro and the PT presidents “are twin brothers, separated at birth”: “Who could have imagined that the government elected in 2018 accusing the PT government of establishing communism and implementing totally wrong economic policies would start the last year of his term resorting to the worst practices of the PT government, of a cheap, totally irresponsible electoral populism?”.
According to Leichsenring, the Bolsonaro government comes to an end practically indistinguishable from the Dilma government from an economic point of view. “Of course, given this dynamic, the interest rate will end up increasing, in a snowball.”
Verde’s chief economist also states in the letter that the proposal will result in an exemption of at least 1% of GDP, but which can reach up to 3% of GDP.
“If fiscal adjustment can no longer be done through spending, it can only be done through collection, and here comes this incomprehensible proposal to lower taxes by more than 1% of GDP, under the shocking justification of the Ministry of Economy that there is excess revenue”, points out Leichsenring.
The economist estimates a nominal deficit in 2022 close to R$730 billion. With the proposal, the projection for the deficit advances to at least R$ 800 billion, he predicts.
After closing 2021 with the second negative return in its history, the multimarket fund Verde, the flagship of the manager led by Luis Stuhlberger, advanced 1.49% in January, against the 0.73% yield of the CDI.
“Despite the good performance [do mercado brasileiro] In the very short term, we are concerned about the scale of the populist measures that the government is signaling.”
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