Him April 2022 The Taliban banned the cultivation of opium poppy, which is used as a raw material for the production of opium and heroin. This decision had consequences: cultivation declined – so much so that Afghanistan ceased to hold the world lead in the production of the drug, which was now occupied by Myanmar. The latter is estimated to have produced 1,080 tons of the raw material this year, as stated in a UN report. Last year 790 tons were produced.

In Afghanistan, by contrast, production has shrunk significantly – according to the ALCIS intelligence service, the reduction reached 85%. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is even talking about a 95% reduction: from 6,200 tons last year to 333 tons this year.

In total, this year’s crop provided raw material for the production of 24 to 38 tons of heroin, according to the UNODC, compared to last year’s figure of between 350 and 580 tons. Accordingly, revenue decreased from US$1,360 million. to 110 million dollars.

Dramatic extensions

According to UNODC, the reduction has dramatic effects on the Afghan economy. In 2015, the cultivation and trade of opioids constituted 16% of GDP, while in 2021 it will be 9-15%. However, the percentage is expected to increase for 2022, the year in which the ban was imposed. But this is primarily due to the contraction of A.E.P. since the Taliban took power.

In another report by ALCIS, it is found that the ban also affects the population of the country. Opioid cultivation was one of the industries that engaged the most people – if the ban had not been imposed, the industry it would employ approximately 450,000 workers in 2022. Farming in Helmand would generate 21 million day wages and $61 million in wages for those employed.

Most affected are small farmers who have very small plots of land or casual workers who have no land at all and who struggle to meet their basic needs. They are not just losing their income, but are also suffering from reduced wages in other industries, which were also indirectly affected by the ban, according to the report.

Reluctant acceptance

The Taliban based the ban on religious grounds. According to Thomas Rütig, an Afghanistan expert and co-founder of the independent think tank Afghanistan Analysts Network, this is a reasonable argument. “This justification is not pretentious, which is evident from the fact that the Taliban are also being harmed by the ban. Because the opium economy is a large part of Afghanistan’s economy, thus bringing in significant taxes, and that is regardless of the fact that it is now illegal,” the expert explains to DW.

The population seems to accept the ban, albeit reluctantly. “Most Afghans they do not oppose an ordinance founded on religious grounds. Because then they think it would be like opposing Islam,” says Rutting. This logic was also the problem of the previous government, which was not considered truly Islamic, which is why the world would not accept such a ban.

The report also states that in the face of the ban, farmers reacted as expected: they harvested as much as they could, calculating that the ban would significantly increase prices. Some sold some of their possessions, such as livestock and vehicles, in order to buy more opium.

This situation benefited primarily the landowners, who bought shares in opium, with which day laborers or casual laborers were paid, and then simply waited for the price to rise. And indeed, in August 2023 a kilogram of opium reached a record price of 408 US dollars.

Reshaping agriculture

In Afghanistan there are no farmers who work exclusively on opium crops, as Rutting says, so no one was solely dependent on opium. This fact favors the change: this year 68% of the land where poppies were grown was used for the cultivation of wheat. Thus, the grain cultivation increased by 160,000 hectares in 2023.

Rutting expects this trend to continue, since “wheat is also the most important staple food in Afghanistan.” In addition, there is evidence that farmers diversified – many of them switched to growing higher value vegetables and fruits. “Especially when it comes to fruit, however, it’s more difficult to produce because the trees have to be planted and grown before they bear fruit.” This means that some difficult years are ahead for the landless.

Rutting hopes that violence in the country will decrease, facilitating trade. The construction of roads, which the Taliban is intensifying, will also contribute to this. In the long term, spending on security could also be reduced, a development that would also have ramifications for production and trade. So there is a long-term perspective. “However, one should not forget that Afghanistan is also among the ten countries in the world that are most affected by the climate crisis. And that will cause problems in agriculture.”