The PDT bench decided to change sides and vote against the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Precatório, which should be analyzed this Tuesday afternoon (9) in the plenary of the Chamber.
However, government allies say they are still confident that the proposal will be approved in the House, as more deputies from center and center-right parties are expected to vote.
Another part of the strategy is to ensure that voting takes place at a time when deputies who are abroad on an official mission can take their positions. The government has 12 votes from that group.
The PEC allows for the expansion of public spending and makes it possible to expand the Auxílio Brasil to R$400 monthly promised by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) in an election year.
Last week, the PDT, which has 25 deputies, cast 15 votes in favor of the proposal. This contributed to the narrow victory of the government, which approved the basic text of the project in the first round with a margin of only 4 votes above the minimum necessary.
Soon after, Ciro Gomes (PDT) claimed to have suspended his candidacy for president of the Republic after the action of his bench in the Chamber.
The party’s leadership then acted to reverse the support of deputies to the PEC, which is seen as a measure to strengthen Bolsonaro’s campaign for re-election.
The decision to change sides in this Tuesday’s vote does not mean that everyone on the PDT bench will vote against the government’s proposal. However, most of the bench must now follow the lead of the legend’s dome.
The basic text of the bill was approved, in the first round, at dawn on Thursday (3) by the Chamber with a tight scoreboard.
There were 312 votes in favor of the proposal, 144 against and 57 deputies did not vote. It takes 308 votes for the PEC to receive the approval of the House, in a vote in two rounds.
The support of dissident opposition deputies, mainly from the PDT and PSB, was crucial to the narrow-margin victory for the Palácio do Planalto. The PSB, which articulates a PT alliance in next year’s elections, cast 10 votes in favor of the project.
Since the weekend, government articulators have already started to account for the loss of votes in these opposition parties because of pressure from the top of the acronyms.
However, Bolsonaro’s organizers expect an increase in votes from the center and center-right parties.
Among the deputies who did not vote in the first round, the government calculates that there are potential votes in the DEM, MDB, PSDB, PP, PSL and Republicans.
About 30 deputies of these acronyms did not take a stand last week. The evaluation of Planalto’s allies is that around 20 would vote with the government if they were in the plenary.
This, then, should make up for the loss of support in opposition parties. Government officials do not believe that pressure from the PDT and PSB summits will have an effect on the majority of the 25 votes for these acronyms.
Allies of the government hope to end the vote on the PEC in the first and second round this Tuesday. For this, they also count on votes from deputies who are abroad.
Last week, the president of the Chamber Arthur Lira (PP-AL), edited an act to allow remote voting of those who are on a mission authorized by the House, which was contested by the opposition.
On Monday (8), Lira edited another act to release from the biometric presence record of pregnant women or congressmen in health condition that makes face-to-face work impossible, as long as authorized by the president of the Chamber and by means of a document that proves the state of health of the congressman.
There are currently 17 on a mission authorized by the Chamber. Of this total, 12 would vote in favor of the PEC. Another six who presented a medical certificate would also be favorable to the text.
The government has spent the last few days mapping the votes in favor of the PEC and claims that there is enough support for the proposal to be approved. Bolsonaro’s allies are counting on pressure from mayors who will be in Brasília on Tuesday asking for the approval of the proposal, which also provides for the renegotiation of the municipalities’ social security debts with the Union.
Bolsonaro determined, in October, the increase of Brazil Aid to R$ 400, triggering a crisis between the political and economic wings of the government.
The solution to meet the president’s demand was to circumvent the spending ceiling, proposing a change in the calculation of the fiscal rule in the PEC dos Precatórios. This PEC, which was already in the Chamber, provides for a limit for payment of court orders (debts of the Union recognized by the courts), which frees up more space in the Budget.
The two changes provided for in the PEC —involving the spending cap and court orders— have the potential to open a gap of more than R$ 90 billion next year, guaranteeing resources for Auxílio Brasil, aid for truck drivers and offsetting the increase in expenses related to the high of inflation.
The increase in spending in the social area is a bet by Bolsonaro and his allies to try to strengthen the president in the 2022 reelection race
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