Brazilian economic activity ended 2021 with a rise of 4.5% compared to the previous year, according to the Central Bank’s IBC-Br, released this Friday (11).
In December, the index registered growth of 0.33% in the monthly comparison, in the series already free of seasonal influences.
“We observed a very large revision in the numbers throughout 2021, mainly in the months of May and August, which showed a decrease and started to show an increase, changing the dynamics and the level of activity”, analyzed Mirella Hirakawa, Senior Economist at AZ Quest .
The specialist points out that industrial production, with emphasis on the vehicle sector, and the volume of services, mainly in the airline sector, explain the scenario of activity in the last year.
Despite high inflation and higher interest rates in the country, this result signals the beginning of recovery from the impact of Covid-19, leveraged by vaccination and the gradual resumption of activities in 2021.
The 0.33% increase in December last year came below financial market estimates, which were mostly up 0.6%, but still within the range of projections.
The December IBC-Br was the second consecutive positive monthly result, changing from 139.27 points to 139.73 points in the seasonally adjusted series – the highest since August.
In November, the BC index had returned to growth after four consecutive declines, rising 0.51% (data revised this Friday, from 0.69%).
Data may differ from previously reported because the series undergoes frequent revisions. Adjustments are usually residual, but the difference has been greater in recent months due to the shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the BC.
In comparison with December 2020, the IBC-Br rose 1.3% in the last month of the year. In the last quarter of 2021, the indicator stagnated at 0.01%, indicating that the Brazilian economy lost traction in the second half of last year.
“For January, we have a more negative perspective. We expect the IBC-Br to be closer to zero or slightly negative, we are reviewing the numbers”, said Hirakawa, considering the wave of the Ômicron variant.
The IBC-Br measures the pace of the country’s economic activity over the months and takes into account the performance of the main sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture and services.
Published since March 2010, it was created to assist in monetary policy decisions, considering that there is no other monthly data on the performance of the productive sector.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
