Forecasting a 0.5% drop in Brazil’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2022, in a scenario with high interest rates and unemployment, the president of Itaú Unibanco, Milton Maluhy Filho, foresees a year of lower expansion for the institution’s operations, with an increase in default levels.
“The macro scenario is different in 2022 from what we saw in 2021. And we come from an important portfolio growth in recent years. We are always comparing the growth of the year against the previous year. And as we had a very strong year in 2021, it is natural that there will be a slowdown in 2022, either on the basis of comparison, or because of what we are seeing from a macro perspective looking forward”, said the executive this Friday (11), when commenting on Itaú’s results in the fourth quarter and in the consolidated year 2021.
“We are going to operate 2022 with a little more caution,” said Maluhy Filho. After registering an 18.1% growth in the loan portfolio in 2021, to $1.027 trillion, the bank’s expectation for this year is for growth between 9% and 12%.
Third of the large private banks to report its quarterly results, the vision transmitted by Itaú is in line with that of Bradesco and Santander, which also predict a year 2022 with a slower growth rate compared to last year.
The president of Itaú said he foresees a generalized cooling down in the coming months among the main lines of credit for individuals and companies.
In the universe of individuals, the increase in Itaú’s loan portfolio was 30.1% last year, to R$ 332.6 billion.
In the case of large companies, the increase was 16.6%, to R$ 313.7 billion.
Maluhy Filho also said that an increase in default levels begins to be identified at the beginning of the year.
“We have already noticed signs of a delinquency rising. We were able to see this mainly in the individual indicator”, said the Executive.
Itaú’s rate of delays over 90 days increased from 2.3% at the end of 2020 to 2.5% in December. Compared to September 2021, the index fell by 0.1 percentage point.
Among individuals, the rate was 3.8% in December, against 4.2% in the same period of the previous year and 3.6% in September 2021.
According to Maluhy Filho, the resumption of activities allowed by vaccination generated an increase in consumption, which has a consequent impact on household debt levels.
The bank works with an interest rate of 12.50% at the end of the high interest rate cycle, with an unemployment rate of 13.1%.
The market received the bank’s numbers quite positively. Itaú shares were operating at a sharp rise this Friday morning on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, B3.
At around 11 am, the shares were up 5.71%, trading at R$26.48. At the same time, the Ibovespa advanced 0.5%, to 113,924 points.
“Itaú presented the best quality of results among private peers. Although provisions have increased, driven by the expansion of the credit portfolio in consumer credit products, we see the quality as positive, as the coverage ratio increased by 7 points percentages in the quarter, while Bradesco and Santander consumed coverage”, say analysts Renan Manda and Matheus Odaguil of XP, in a report.
They also point out that the rate of increase in delinquency at Itaú was lower compared to private peers.
“The expansion of Iti platform customers by almost 5 million, reaching about 15 million customers, shows the bank’s resilience in a market permeated by fintechs, such as Nubank. The result published by the bank in the fourth quarter was beyond our expectations” , points out Rodrigo Crespi, market analyst at Guide Investimentos.
Maluhy Filho also said that the bank is considering starting to offer credit through Pix, within the strategy of increasing the digitalization of services to customers.
“We are studying a Pix Credit modality, which is naturally complementary to the current arrangements that the bank has, whether for the issuer or the acquirer”, said the president of Itaú.
He added that the project is still at an embryonic stage, having been selected by the BC at the end of last year, within the scope of a regulatory sandbox project that seeks innovation initiatives for the financial system.
“We should have more news by the end of the year. For now, it’s still in the field of ideas and designs.”
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