The effects of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are terrifying for global security and energy markets, but the consequences for global food supplies have attracted less attention than they deserve. Once the granary of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is an agricultural power, and the conflict there would immediately cause crises and price increases in the grain and oil markets, while European households are already struggling with rising inflation.
For Europe, the problems are twofold. Ukraine is the EU’s fourth largest food supplier, accounting for about a quarter of imports of cereals and vegetable oils, including almost half of its corn. As a major food producer itself, the EU should probably be able to adapt to the immediate shock of a conflict in bilateral trade.
The potentially greater strategic concern depends on Ukraine’s even more crucial role as a supplier to the Middle East and North Africa. Analysts cite food supply as one of the many major underlying factors behind the Arab Spring revolutions that erupted a decade ago and the EU has persistent fears of a new round of instability in its neighborhood. Egypt, for example, is a major buyer of Ukrainian grain.
“In terms of food security, the conflict with Ukraine is becoming another important issue because it should not take place, because it should be avoided,” said Nazar Bobitski, director of the Ukrainian Business and Trade Union office in Brussels. “I’m afraid that this is not yet on the radar of decision – makers in Europe. It should be.”
And he is right that any risks to food security they do not yet resonate in Brussels. “There are no emergency plans at the moment,” a European Commission official told Politico. “A possible conflict is on the radar of the Commission departments dealing with geopolitics and security. DG AGRI [το τμήμα γεωργίας της ΕΕ] “He has not been tasked with delivering anything on this matter,” the official added. The Ukrainian issue is not on the agenda of the EU Agriculture Ministers.
“Perfect storm”
At first glance, European food security is not threatened. The EU is a net exporter of food and Ukraine, although a major trading partner, accounts for only 4.9% of total EU agri-food imports. Brazil and the USA However, the devil is in the details, as Europe is much more dependent on certain products. Bobitski, points out that 88% of Europe’s sunflower oil41% of rapeseed and 26% of honey come from Ukraine.
“The biggest challenge is a short-term security shock,” Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister, told POLITICO.
According to Bobitski, a war will mainly affect wholesale importers and the food industry, which already have to deal with high energy prices and ambitious EU regulations on sustainability. “We have some ingredients for a perfect storm,” he said. A representative of the international food industry with a presence in Ukraine that supplies vegetable oils from the country says that the company monitors the situation on a daily basis, but is also ready to diversify its sources. “There are alternatives,” he commented.
Kachka also stressed the importance of Ukrainian corn exports – an important component of animal feed. “This is an area where… vulnerabilities could be even more complex for European industry,” he warned, noting that supply disruptions could affect pig and poultry farms across the continent. “Thus the ham can be affected by the impact on security,” he added, as Spain is by far the largest importer of corn in the EU.
Outside the EU, dependencies may be higher. For example, 55% of wheat imported into Lebanon (which is heavily dependent on grain imports) comes from Ukraine. In Turkey, Ukrainian wheat accounts for 23% of total imports, while Russian wheat accounts for 62% of imported supplies, according to FAO data. Egypt is heavily dependent on both Russia and Ukraine.
Rise
It is noted that prices are already high – according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), world food prices reached a 10-year record in 2021 – and the war would make the situation much worse…
politico.eu
Follow Skai.gr on Google News
and be the first to know all the news
