At the top of the world ranking of the stock markets was the Athens Stock Exchangein January 2024. The General Price Index ranked third with gains of 5.74%, after theurtician BIST 100 (+13.74%) and the Nikkei (+8.43%).

The Greek index outperformed the largest global markets. The indices on Wall Street with an increase, the Dow Jones (+1.22%), the S&P (+1.58%) and the Nasdaq (+1.02%), while the major European indices closed the Dax-30 ( +0.91%), the Cac-40 (+1.51%), while the British FTSE index closed down 1.29%. The total market capitalization increased by 4.182 billion euros. The banking index closed January with gains of 11.35%.

Historically, the positive January is an omen for the whole year.

The first months of the last two years were positive for the Greek market, as it had recorded gains of 4.8% and 10% respectively, with the market closing positively in both 2022 and 2023.

The prospects for the new year, according to the analysts, are auspicious for the Greek Stock Exchange, as they are fueled by the positive estimates for the country’s GDP, the sizes of Listed Companies, but also the prospective return of the Greek stock market to the developed markets

One of Goldman Sachs’ top four picks among Europe’s emerging markets remains the Greek stock market, as according to the American bank, it sees a rise of around 15% over the next 12 months and maintains the target price for the General Index at 1,550 points . The P/E valuation ratio for the domestic market is estimated at 7.6 times in current values ​​and in terms of P/BV (price to book value) at 1.1 times, figures that rank the domestic market among the most attractively valued. The corresponding emerging market ratios are 11.5 times in P/E terms and 1.6 times in book value terms, with the discount approaching 35% in P/E terms and exceeding 30% in P/BV terms .

According to Citi, Greek shares, which despite the strong rally they recorded in 2023, have one of the cheapest valuations both in the European region and globally.

In terms of valuations, however, the Greek market stands out internationally, as it is among the cheapest in terms of P/E among a total of 104 markets. Specifically, the 2024 P/E is placed at 7.1. This compares to a P/E of 12.9x in Europe, 20.2x in the US, 17.5 in developed markets and 11.7 in emerging markets.

Optima Bank is optimistic about the course of both the Greek economy and the Athens Stock Exchange for 2024, stressing that the “glorious days” will continue and stressing that the dominant risks come from the external environment and mainly from the geopolitical developments in M. East, Ukraine – Russia but also from the American elections.

Greece can further consolidate its credit rating (possible upgrade from Moody’s), achieve lower spreads on Greek bonds, continue prudent fiscal policy (2024 primary surplus target) and maintain stable growth (very above the EU average). In addition, it foresees the Greek stock market to be included in 2024 on MSCI’s watch list for upgrading to a developed market in 2025.

Greece is a strong and durable growth story and will continue to outperform the Eurozone in the next two years at least, according to the Fitch rating agency. The Swiss bank UBS appears particularly optimistic about the course of the Greek economy and sets the threshold for GDP growth at 3% in 2023, much higher than the estimates of the Bank of Greece, the government, and international analysts.

According to Optima Bank analysts, valuations remain attractive despite the AX rally in 2023, with the General Index trading at 8 times projected earnings per share for 2024, i.e. at a 36% discount compared to Europe and 5, 6 times EV/EBITDA, again with a 30% discount compared to Europe.

According to Eurobank Equities, 2024 will be the “year of the Dragon” (symbol of strength) for the Greek stock market as well, even after the strong returns of 2023, giving the General Index a target price of 1622 units.

A clear indication that the Greek market has entered a multi-year upward cycle with higher investment activity, a broader investment base and higher valuations are the strong performances recorded by the General Index of the Athens Stock Exchange in 2023, according to a report by Alpha Finance, “see” further an increase of 15 to 25%, as a result of a series of factors related to the significant prospects presented by the Greek economy today, while the listed companies will continue to generate strong profits in the new year as well, confirming the sustainability of their growth dynamics. In addition, the valuation at DG level remains attractive, presenting a discount against key foreign indices and also against the historical average.

The return to investment grade and the prospect of upgrading the Stock Exchange to developed market status will provide the necessary “fuel” for the further increase of investment capital inflows. The extensive agenda for IPOs/placements within the year is also expected to help this, with a typical example being the Public Offering of the Athens International Airport, which is already underway, as well as the placements of systemic banks.

January returns

The biggest monthly increase was recorded by the shares: Frigoglass (+45.11%), Q&A (+41.33%), Moda Bango (+34.72%) Minerva (+33.02%).

On the contrary, the biggest fall was registered by the shares: Cecrops (-16.67%), Akritas (-12.90%), ‘Avax (-11.83%) and Kloukinas-Lappas (-11.43%).

Of the high capitalization stocks, the biggest monthly gain was recorded by: Elvalhalcor (+29.19%), Viohalco (+20.72%), Piraeus (+17.19%), Ethniki (+11.76%), Titan +11.19%) and Eurobank (+11.18 %). Smaller gains were recorded by the shares: PPC (+9.68%), Aegean Airlines (+8.29%), PPA (+7.76%), Alpha Bank (+7.21%), Motor Oil (+6, 40%), GEK (+5.93%), Autohellas (+4.85%), Sarantis (+4.52%), OPAP (+4.23%), Mytilineos (+3.54%), Jumbo (+3.50%), Lamda (+3.25%), Coca Cola HBC (+2.73%) and ELPE (+1.79%).

On the contrary, the stocks closed down in January: Terna Energy (-5.41%), EYDAP (-4.96%), Quest (-4.51%), Ellaktor (-3.14%) and OTE (-0, 39%).