Commodity Shuttle: Brazil’s weight in global agribusiness will grow in the decade, US estimates

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Commodity Shuttle: Brazil’s weight in global agribusiness will grow in the decade, US estimates

The good prices of the 2020/21 crop will not be repeated in the coming years, Brazil gains importance in the world commodity market and the United States loses share.

China will continue to be the main driver of this sector, but several other markets, such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Iran and Mexico, deserve special attention from grain, oil and animal protein producers and exporters.

The pace of world population growth is slowing, but the increase in income, especially in developing countries and Asia, will support food production, especially proteins.

The data are from USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), which is betting on a return of commodity prices to a lower level than in recent years.

The sector will remain profitable, but accelerating costs will prevent higher yields. In the assessment of the North Americans, Brazil will stand out in all the main products that have a share in the foreign market.

Soybeans will continue to be the flagship of the Brazilian sector, with export prospects of 136 million tons in the period 2031/32. With that, the Brazilian participation in the international trade of the oilseed would rise to 62%.

Although the country gains importance in soybeans, the participation in bran and oil exports will remain limited. In the latter, despite the fact that biodiesel will move 15 billion liters in 2031 in the international market, the Brazilian share in exports will be lower than the current one.

Brazilian corn foreign sales gain a good boost, according to these projections by the Usda, which assesses the sector’s behavior over the next ten years.

From the current 43 million tons, the volume will rise to 65 million in 2031, increasing the Brazilian share of world trade to 26%. In ten years, Brazil, Ukraine and the United States will have 90% of world corn exports.

The biggest jump in world share is for cotton. Land available and greater use of technology will allow Brazil to meet 27% of the world’s demand for this fiber, a percentage well above the current 17%.

Brazil will also stand out in the production and export of animal protein. It will maintain the world leadership in chicken exports, placing 5.2 million tons of this protein on the world market. It will also increase the world share in beef and pork.

The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil will export 3.69 million tons of beef and 1.84 million tons of pork in 2031. With this, the country will maintain the world leadership in beef sales, participating with 26.3 % of world trade.

Pork’s share rises to 13% in 2031, and the country will rank third, Canada’s current position.

The United States, along with Brazil, will be among the main suppliers of food to the world, but with a smaller share. In the grain sector, the global presence of North Americans in the commercialization of soybeans drops from the current 33% to 27% in 2031. The participation in corn drops to 31%; wheat, to 11.6%; and cotton, to 31.6%.

The same is true in the protein sector. The increase in Brazilian participation in the foreign market drops that of the Americans in beef, pork and chicken.

China, in the opinion of the Americans, advances even more in purchases of soy and beef. In the first case, forecasts are for imports of 142 million tons in 2031, a volume well above the 110 million predicted by the Chinese themselves for the period.

The need to buy beef from China, which has already occurred in recent years, will increase even more, with imports reaching 4 million tons per year in a decade.

According to Usda, commodity prices have been accommodating over the years. For soybeans, the agency estimates the bushel (27.2 kg) at US$ 10 (R$ 51, at the current exchange rate). It is currently close to US$ 13 (R$ 66) in the field. Corn, which is traded at US$ 4.80 (R$ 24.47) per bushel (25.4 kg), will be at US$ 4 (R$ 20.39).

Some new markets stand out in this decade. Egypt and Iran will increase corn imports, while Vietnam and Bangladesh will increase cotton.

Mexico will have the highest growth in the world in the purchase of beef, with an increase of 33% in the period. Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia also accelerate purchases of this protein. India will expand soy oil imports.

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