Soybean oil exports from Brazil are expected to jump in 2022, with record demand from India, which is the biggest global importer but faces supply problems related to sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia, in addition to a shortage of the product from palm in Indonesia, according to experts and government data.
And with this additional external demand supporting soy processing, exports of the Brazilian in natura grain — which has China as the main buyer — should come under pressure, according to the president of Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries) and industry analysts. .
André Nassar, from Abiove, believes that processing will be higher than expected, due to relatively good margins for oil and bran, which will further reduce the supply of grain for export, already severely affected by the crop failure due to the drought, which also affected Argentina and Paraguay.
“I think, it’s my opinion, I think we’re going to export less soybeans,” said the Abiove executive, citing the consequence of a strong crush.
“This year will surprise us positively in the export of oil and soybean meal,” he told Reuters, noting that total oil shipments from Brazil could surpass a record high, coming in above the estimated 1.7 million tonnes.
Among the factors cited on the demand side is India’s increased demand for soybean oil in early 2022, a movement accentuated by the crisis in Ukraine, a major exporter of sunflower oil, a situation that leads Indians to seek alternative suppliers.
“India is very active, it could be even more [do que 1,7 milhão de toneladas de óleo]it would be a great record, and the bran market is good too,” said Nassar.
Brazilian soybean oil exports in January totaled 170,300 tonnes, up from just 8,500 in the same period last year, with India buying nearly 140,000 tonnes, the highest volume in at least 20 years, according to government data. . In the first month of the year alone, these shipments to the Asian country added up to more than 20% of the volumes for the whole of last year to the destination.
“India is on the market this year, it went to Argentina, the United States, came to Brazil, they are talking to everyone. Because first there is Ukraine, a significant supplier of sunflower oil, and then there is Indonesia, are consuming a lot of oil internally,” Nassar said.
According to him, India wants to increase the share of soy oil in the consumption matrix, because it is feeling “insecure” with the supply of palm oil from Indonesia and now with sunflower oil, from Ukraine and Russia.
LOWER SOYBEAN EXPORTS
On the supply side, one of the factors that also benefit Brazil is the fall in the soybean crop in Argentina, the largest global exporter of soybean oil and meal. In Paraguay, “industries are at a standstill” due to the shortage of raw material, commented Nassar.
Despite believing in a strong soy processing in Brazil, Nassar commented that some players still have doubts about who will win the arm-wrestling: crushing or exporting the grain.
According to Abiove’s supply and demand balance, last updated at the end of January, Brazil’s soybean exports would still be a record, at 86.9 million tons, but that is considering a crop of 135.8 million tons. tons, which should be reviewed.
During the interview with Reuters, Nassar even mentioned the possibility of a crop of 125 million tons, a figure close to that estimated by private consultants after the latest accounting of losses in the ongoing harvest.
The drought in southern Brazil led consultancy Céleres to reduce its forecast for the 2021/22 national soybean crop, from an estimated 145 million tons at the beginning of the season to the current 126 million.
The cut directly impacted the forecast for grain exports, which fell from 96 million tonnes to 78 million, Céleres analyst Enilson Nogueira told Reuters.
“Our supply forecast has dropped by 19 million tonnes. On the demand side, the forecast for shipments has decreased by 18 million tonnes, while the processing expectation has dropped by only 1 million tonnes,” he said, citing crushing is expected to reach 47 million tonnes. in this year.
In a crop failure season, like the one being harvested now in Brazil, the tendency is for the grain to stay in the country, said the expert. He explained that trading companies, in the absence of an offer to close lots on ships, may seek the product from other origins, leaving more grain on the local market.
PROCESSORS AND MARGINS
Abiove, which is expected to have new figures in March based on the evaluations of the associates, pointed in its latest projection of processing of 48 million tons, which would still be a record, and exports of bran and oil advancing to 18.3 million and 1 .7 million tons, respectively.
“I think this number will be higher, we have gathered information… but we have a chance to increase”, said Nassar.
Last year, crushing was 47 million tons, while bran and oil exports were 17.2 million and 1.65 million, according to data from the entity.
Nassar admitted that margins are not as good as they used to be, after the soaring price of grain. But he believes that, if there is liquidity for oil and bran, they would balance out.
Along the same lines, the Céleres analyst said that the share of oil in the crusher’s margin has become relevant, before because of its destination as a raw material for biodiesel and now due to the export of the oil itself.
“The functioning of the demand made the prices of soybean oil rise in the international market. Now, the topic of biodiesel is lower than in previous years in the domestic market, but the external demand is high,” stated Nogueira.
On Thursday, Chicago-based soybean oil futures hit a high of $0.75 a pound on concerns about global vegetable oil supplies amid conflict in the main oil-producing region. sunflower.
“In the event of a rupture in the sunflower oil logistics chain, other oils should see their demand reinforced (especially soybean, palm and canola), at a time when the world balance of vegetable oils is not comfortable, with demand and supply-side issues,” StoneX said in a report.
In addition to India, Brazil also exports large volumes of soy oil to China, which purchased 427,300 tonnes of the Brazilian product in 2021.
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