Russia sees new stampede of companies, GDP highlights and what matters in the market

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War in Ukraine: Oil soars and more companies leave Russia

The prices of a barrel of Brent oil, a reference for Petrobras, reached a maximum of US$ 139.13 (R$706.11) this Sunday in Brazil, with talks between the US and the European Union to suspend oil imports from Russia.

The new level means that the highs of 2014 are behind us, and the new price is already close to that of 2008, year of the commodity’s historic peak, when it reached $145. By late Sunday night, Brent’s keg was in $129 (R$ 654), up 9%.

Understand: among the various sanctions applied by the West to Russia, activities involving energy and food are not yet among them.

Serial cancellations: in recent days, more companies have announced that they are no longer operating in the country ruled by Vladimir Putin.

Fertilizers: subject of extreme interest to Brazil, the Russian government recommended on Friday (4) fertilizer manufacturers to suspend their exports. Understand why Brazil depends so much on fertilizer imports.

Petrobras becomes a ‘dairy cow’ of dividends

With the recent announcements of “fat” dividends, Petrobras has increasingly established itself in what the market calls a “dairy cow” company.

Understand: these companies are known for their large dividend distribution and are usually in recommended portfolios for investors who prioritize this type of strategy.

In numbers: with the payment of BRL 72.7 billion in 2021, Petrobras was the second company in the sector to pay more dividends in the year, behind only the American giant Exxon Mobil. The survey is from Economática.

What explains: Petrobras changed its shareholder remuneration policy during the Roberto Castello Branco administration, fired by Bolsonaro in February 2021.

In the third quarter of 2021, the company reached its target of reducing gross debt to US$60 billion (R$300 billion), which was expected for the end of 2022, and expanded its dividend distribution.

Record: Brazilian companies distributed record dividends in 2021, according to a report by manager Janus Henderson Investors. The only one that paid more than Petrobras was Vale, with BRL 73.3 billion.

In 2020, the income declared by Brazilians with profits and dividends rose to BRL 384.3 billion, according to the IRS. The amount was 7% higher than that declared in this source of income in 2019.

More about investments:

GDP highlights in 2021

The Brazilian economy rose by 4.6% in 2021, according to IBGE data released on Friday (4). As a result, the country’s GDP has recovered the losses of the pandemic and is 0.5% above the level of the last quarter of 2019, before the health crisis.

In numbers: the annual result came close to the market projection (4.5%). In the last three months of 2021, GDP advanced 0.5% and surprised analysts, who had forecast a rise of 0.1%.

• The increase in the last quarter confers a statistical load of 0.3% to 2022. That is, even if the country does not grow from one quarter to the other this year, the economy is already starting from an advance of 0.3%.
• Despite strong growth in 2021, Brazil lost a position in the ranking of the world’s largest economies, falling from 12th to 13th place. See here how other countries performed in the two years of the pandemic.

What explains: Analysts point out that the 2021 high comes from a weakened comparison base of 2020, when the economy retreated 3.9%.

Top 5. Five points to understand the 4.6% increase in GDP:

• 1 – Investments: measured by GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation), they increased 17.2% and contributed to the rise of the indicator. The rate was the highest since 2014, recalls columnist Vinicius Torres Freire.
• 2 – Vaccination: the advance in the circulation of people thanks to the immunization provided by vaccines was essential for the high 4.7% in the service sector, the main one from the point of view of supply and the largest employer in the country. In the last quarter, it was 1.6% above the same period in 2019.
• 3 – family consumption: considered the engine of the economy in terms of demand, advanced 3.6% in 2021, but has not yet recovered from the losses of the pandemic.
• 4 – Agro: the sector that least felt the effects of the pandemic in 2020, when it grew 3.8%, retreated 0.2% in 2021. The field was damaged by drought and frost last year.
• 5 – And for 2022? Analysts expect much lower growth this year, affected by persistent inflation, rising interest rates and falling incomes. To make matters worse, the war in Ukraine should also contribute to a scenario of stagnation.

Analysis:

Who will be the ‘Brazilian Silicon Valley’?

Intel, Meta, Apple, Twitter, Google. These are some of the US tech giants that are headquartered in Silicon Valley, as the southern San Francisco Bay region is called.

In Brazil, cities from all corners of the country are trying to win a race to become the national technology hub.

Understand: in at least 21 cities, there are communities of local entrepreneurs or managers seeking this title. The public authorities also entered this game with incentive policies to attract startups and other technology companies.

A survey of sheet shows that at least 11 laws related to the sector were passed in ten major cities in the last five years.

In front: in some cities, the innovation ecosystem is more developed. This concept is a recipe that has universities, human capital, sources of investment, companies of different sizes, supporting institutions, etc. Among the most advanced Brazilian municipalities are:

• Florianopoliswith an innovation network distributed throughout the city;
• Recifewith a space for innovation in the old port area of ​​the city;
• Porto Alegrewith a university technology park;
• São José dos Camposwith some of the main technology institutes in the country.