Annual growth of 2.3%, similar to 2023, driven by strengthening investment (19.2%, fixed investment 8.8%) and inflation-resistant household consumption (2.2%, total consumption 1 .3%) estimates IOBE in its quarterly report on the Greek Economy presented today.

In the external sector, the current account deficit is expected to worsen, with a 5.8% increase in imports more than offsetting a 1.8% increase in exports.

Significant risks arise from a possible large increase in international energy prices with negative effects on production costs and the de-escalation of interest rates, the widening deficit in the external balance, the maintenance of inflation and uncertainty at the regional and international level.

For 2025, IOBE estimates similar to this year in terms of annual growth, of the order of 2.4%.

In terms of components, fixed investment is expected to exceed this year’s performance, with higher annual expansion in 2024 (11%) while consumption is expected to slow (1.2%).

The external balance deficit is expected to decrease, albeit at high levels, with exports and imports increasing annually in 2024 by 4% and 2.9% respectively.

The rate of change in the general consumer index (CPI) stood at 2.8% in the first nine months of 2024, up from 3.6% a year earlier. The strengthening of prices is mainly due to the positive impact of domestic demand, as well as persistent inflationary pressure on essential goods such as food.

IOBE estimates that prices will remain on a milder upward trajectory throughout this year, in the region of 3%, mainly due to consumer demand. For 2025, the rate of change in prices is expected to be in the region of 2.4% due mainly to consumer demand.

At the presentation of the Exhibition, the new president of IOBE, Mr. Yiannis Retsos, welcoming those present at the presentation of the Exhibition, referred to the “great responsibility he assumed, for the continuation of the tradition of excellence that characterizes the Foundation. Under the consistent leadership of Nikos Vetta, the goal is to continue the important work being done and to further strengthen IOBE at the national and international level.

What IOBE produces are not just numbers and statistics, they are tools of immense value to policy makers, businesses and society as a whole,” he concluded.

At the same time, the general director of IOBE, Professor Nikos Vettas, pointed out the strengthening of short-term growth rates in Greece and Europe, but also the medium-term concerns. Among other things, he noted:

•The world economy is expanding at a steady rate, which is however moderate and shows high heterogeneity between countries. In this context, an acceleration is expected in Europe, but from a significantly lower current growth rate.

•Inflation and interest rates are gradually falling, at a faster pace than expected. Trade flows appear resilient to international shocks.

•Despite avoiding the “crash landing” of the international economy, international foci of uncertainty are intensifying. Geopolitical tensions are escalating and war zones remain in the wider region east of Europe, there is a risk of destabilization in energy and capital markets, while an increase in public debt and deficits is recorded in developed economies and core countries of the Eurozone.

• The Greek economy records significantly positive performances. In the short term, growth rates continue to be above the European average, while fiscal targets are consistently met.

• In the medium term, the Greek economy is facing critical challenges. There is a need for a stronger dynamic of productive investments, rebalancing the external balance, such as through strengthening exports and domestic savings, as fiscal stability will remain assured in the medium term.

• The Greek economy is called upon to adapt to central international trends, in consumption, investments and international trade. Consumption resilience has been an international trend that is gradually declining. There is pressure in Greece and Europe to stimulate investment (e.g. Draghi report proposals), with an emphasis on cutting-edge technologies. At the same time, international trade has increased the degree of correlation and dependence of economies on each other. It is an immediate priority for the Greek economy to specialize production in areas of high value and innovation, in order to make it less vulnerable to subsequent international upheavals.