As the Donald Trump looks set to return to the White House, the US dollar and the US stock market are seen as winners, but a Republican presidency could weigh on bonds, emerging markets, clean energy and sustainable investment, according to Reuters.

The US dollar strengthened today as Donald Trump is the big winner in the election, with investors expecting his policies to increase inflation and growth than would be the case if Democrat Kamala Harris prevailed. This means the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates high to prevent the economy from accelerating too quickly which in turn will boost the dollar.

At the same time, Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on tradeforcing European allies to pay more for defense is likely to dampen growth in other countries, boosting the allure of the dollar. Citi analysts expect the US dollar to rise 3% after Trump’s victory.

At the same time, analysts expect the euro to fall sharply, possibly below the key $1 level, if tariffs and domestic tax cuts are implemented.

Higher dollar yields would also mean a return to foreign exchange carry trades with currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc already sold off heavily ahead of the election. However, the Swiss franc will find support, analysts say, thanks to exports higher value of the country that protect it from tariffs and the currency’s tendency to overperform in times of higher inflation.

With a Trump administration expected to take a softer stance on cryptocurrency regulation, bitcoin is another potential winner. The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit an all-time high today Wednesday.

Stocks

Trump’s promise of less regulation and lower taxes for big companies, more oil production and a tough immigration policy all point to stronger growth and inflation, which are seen as positive for stocks. Sectors such as banking, technology, defense and fossil fuels are likely to benefit.

His plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from 21 percent would boost S&P 500 gains by about 4 percent, Goldman Sachs estimates.

Even so, it’s still unclear how much of his plan to cut taxes will make it through Congress. At the same time, his protectionist policies and tough stance on China would raise costs, reduce profitability and hurt multinationals.

Outside the United States, a strong dollar, rising US interest rates and trade tensions mean defense sectors will fare better and multinationals with exposure to US markets will take a hit.

Sectors exposed to tariff changes, such as autos and clean energy, will likely be volatile.

Bonds

Investors are increasingly concerned about the scale of the US public debt and the budget deficits that add to it, and worry that it will raise borrowing costs or Treasury yields.

Trump’s spending plans could add $7.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years, according to one estimate, far more than what Kamala Harris had proposed. Bond yields rose nearly 50 basis points last October, when markets were pricing in a higher probability of a Trump victory.

Inflationary pressures from Trump’s policies will leave the Fed with less room to cut interest rates, which will keep Treasury yields high.

A Trump victory is also possible to suppress growth in Europe and Asia, as tariffs and other policies put pressure on these economies. More pressure on the euro, yen, Swiss franc and other currencies and higher inflation they will reduce the leeway central banks have there to cut interest rates as needed. Analysts expect global yields to rise.

Goods

Trump will seek to maximize U.S. oil and gas drilling by expanding federal leasing and rolling back environmental regulations where possible — a policy agenda that guarantees the country will remain the world’s top oil producer. That strong supply could help keep crude futures, which have fallen about 4% so far this year, relatively low.

On the other hand, it is likely to speed up the imposition of oil sanctions on Iran, which could limit a portion of global crude supply. He also said he would fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to unprecedented levels, which could add support to prices as the government taps into markets.

Soybeans are also targeted. US traders were scrambling to ship a record harvest ahead of the election amid fears of renewed trade tensions with China, the world’s biggest soybean importer. China, which failed to fully comply with a 2020 deal with the Trump administration to buy more U.S. farm products, has bought less U.S. soybeans this period and almost no corn. Soybean prices are down 25% from a year ago.

Emerging markets

Even before the election, concerns about Trump’s policies had burdened emerging economies. In addition to the tariffs on China, Trump has said he will impose tariffs of up to 200% on vehicle imports of Mexico. This could significantly weaken the Mexican peso.

Also, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, proposed a 10 percent tax on remittances, important to many Latin American economies.

A bond sell-off and a rising dollar will also siphon money from emerging markets and force monetary tightening in many countries.

Emerging economies such as India or South Africa could also benefit and act as a “safe haven” in otherwise volatile global environments. Copper and lithium producer Chile could benefit greatly due to the less substitutable nature of its exports.

Sustainable investment

A Trump victory would allow him to follow through on campaign promises to roll back green regulations that limit oil and gas drilling and coal mining, which could boost stocks in those sectors.

Trump also said he would “revoke all unused funds” under the Inflation Reduction Act, the climate law signed by the Biden-Harris administration that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric vehicles, solar and wind power.

But steps that could actually reduce stocks in those sectors may require congressional action, and several Republican lawmakers have expressed support for at least some of them.

Trump has also promised to oust Gary Gensler as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This would set back the ability of US sustainable funds to pressure companies for policy changes and potentially make these funds less attractive.