ECB: Trump’s economic agenda threatens to bring back inflation in the US and damage economic growth around the world
Donald Trump’s economic agenda threatens to reignite inflation in the United States and hurt economic growth around the world, warned Francois Villeroy, head of the Central Bank of France and a member of the European Central Bank’s governing board.
“The program threatens to bring back inflation in the United States,” he told the France Inter network. “It threatens to dampen growth a bit around the world. It remains to be seen whether the decline will be felt more in the United States, China or Europe.”
Trump has talked about imposing tariffs of 10 percent or more on all goods imported into the United States and 60 percent tariffs on imports from China. He argues that doing so will eliminate the US trade deficit.
But Francois Villeroy predicts that it will be American citizens themselves who will bear the brunt of many of the tariffs.
“Protectionism almost always means a reduction in consumer purchasing power,” he said.
The French central banker’s predictions coincided with assessments made yesterday by his colleagues in Austria and Finland and also members of the European Central Bank’s governing board warning that protectionist policies by the next United States administration would hurt global economic growth and that Europe should be better prepared than in 2018.
“What we do know is that the high import tariffs that are being talked about could have harmful effects on the global economy,” said Finnish central banker Olli Rehn. “A new trade war is the last thing we need at a time of geopolitical rivalry – especially between allies.”
Austria’s central banker Robert Holzmann warned that if Donald Trump implements the policies he has announced, US interest rates and inflation will remain high, putting upward pressure on prices elsewhere.
“He means what he has said and it is likely that he will implement it faster than we expect. If this is the case, what are the markets waiting for? That interest rates will remain higher and that inflation will also be higher,” said Robert Holzman, adding that this would put upward pressure on the dollar and eurozone inflation.
Robert Holzmann added that if the dollar stabilizes and approaches 1-to-1 parity with the euro, this will have a measurable impact on import costs, notably energy, making it harder for the ECB to meet its 2% inflation target and possibly delay the process.
Trade tensions between the US and Europe had been rising during Trump’s first presidency and Europe was struggling to come up with a common response, a mistake it should not make this time, Olli Rehn said. “If a trade war is to start, Europe should not be unprepared, like in 2018.”
“The ECB must, as part of its mandate, act as an anchor of economic and monetary stability in this turbulent landscape. No one should doubt that we will shoulder this responsibility in full,” warned the Finnish central banker.
Source: Skai
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