Only a fifth of Bolsa Família’s ‘children’ were still in the program after 14 years

Joining Bolsa Família in 2008 changed the life of Iva Mayara dos Santos, 30. A resident of a favela in Aracaju (SE), she became a mother in her teens and thought she would be doomed to live without having the least — until she registered in the program. “With the basics guaranteed, we were able to take care of our children, we moved house and I even went to college.”

In 2017, even though she could remain in the program, she resigned and started working with the registration of other residents of the neighborhood. She even returned the benefit card to former President Lula, during a PT caravan through the Northeast.

“Before, we had to decide between eating, studying or working. After the program, my husband took vocational courses and progressed at work, and I believe that my children (now aged 15 and six) will never need a income transfer. Our life is different and today I am an administrative assistant.”

Stories like that of Iva Mayara’s family are not isolated. A study by the IMDS (Institute of Mobility and Social Development) released exclusively for the sheet points out that only 2 out of 10 Bolsa Família dependents, or 2.373 million people, were still in homes enrolled in the program after 14 years, either as dependents or heads of household.

The study, led by economist Paulo Tafner, considers payroll data from Caixa Econômica Federal and CadÚnico (Cadastro Único).

“The ideal would be, as a public policy, for all those who received the benefit to leave when they became adults, because the role of the poverty alleviation program would have been fulfilled and they would have acquired the skills to no longer need it, but the result is already impressive. “, says Tafner.

The study takes into account the departure or permanence of dependent beneficiaries, who were between 7 and 16 years old between 2005 and 2019, equivalent to 11.628 million people who were in poverty and extreme poverty.

The researchers also estimated that 1.5% of these young people died in the period and that 14% were still registered, but were no longer in homes that received Bolsa Família.

During this period, 7.451 million (64.1%) did not appear in CadÚnico because they became young adults with a monthly family income of more than R$ 3 thousand or half the minimum wage per person or even because they did not update their registration – which means that are no longer considered vulnerable by the government.

Among those who left Bolsa Família due to an increase in income, there are those who, in fact, have been emancipated from the program and have a low probability of returning to poverty and those who are temporarily outside this range, but who may become eligible again in the first obstacle, such as losing a job, for example.

There is also an intermediate stage of life, in which some of these young adults get a job and still do not have children, falling outside the Bolsa Família criteria. But once they become parents, without a noticeable improvement in income, they can return to the program, says Tafner.

“Although it is still not clear to what extent the Bolsa Família acted in long-term social mobility, there are indications that it worked in this sense, at least for a portion of the beneficiaries”, adds the economist.

Most of those who remained on Bolsa Família after 14 years were women (64%). Dependents who identified as white also had a higher dropout rate (65%) than blacks (54%).

The data also point to a positive impact on the increase in schooling of those responsible for the household. Among those who had not completed elementary school at most, the rate of dependents leaving CadÚnico is 56.1%; for those who completed high school or college, this rate rises to 62% and 62.2%, respectively.

“The increase in parents’ schooling increases the chances of a child’s school success by 68%, according to a survey by Professor Naércio Menezes. This survey, from the first decade of the 21st century, already showed that parents’ school success increases income of children and this continues to be a reality”, evaluates the columnist for sheet and education specialist Cláudia Costin.

According to Tafner, although the results from CadÚnico also consider dependents with difficulties in registering, the municipalities’ mechanisms for identifying vulnerable families have been improved over the years.

“What has always been a problem was the Bolsa Família queue, due to the surplus of people who were entitled to the benefit, but could not receive it, due to lack of budget.”

To avoid distortions, the IMDS study focused on the period before the pandemic, which officially arrived in Brazil in the first quarter of 2020 and led to an explosion in the number of CadÚnico subscribers, a requirement for receiving Emergency Aid.

A subsequent study by the institute will cross-reference the current data with other administrative records, such as the MEI (individual microentrepreneur) and Rais (Annual Social Information Report), to observe in more detail the fate of Bolsa Família’s children over the years. years old.

Further research should also study the effect of the pandemic on the permanence or departure of Bolsa Família and Auxílio Brasil dependents.

“Poverty during childhood is very impactful, and many investments that are not made at this stage of life cannot be compensated later on. Because it focused on homes with children, Bolsa Família had the potential to rescue poverty at an age critical”, says Cecilia Machado, who is chief economist at Banco Bocom – BBM and professor at EPGE/FGV (Brazilian School of Economics and Finance, at Fundação Getulio Vargas).

Machado, who is also a columnist for sheet and one of the contributors to the IMDS study, emphasizes that the family context is important for the formation of benefit dependents. “Children and young people who live in homes where the mother is worried that she will have food the next day are at a disadvantage,” she says.

In November 2021, after 18 years, Bolsa Família was replaced by the government of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) by Auxílio Brasil. The flag change updated the value of the benefits and served to institute complementary benefits — such as incentives for school performance and sports, for children.

The change was also considered an important political move for the president – ​​who is expected to seek re-election this year facing former President Lula – and needed to plant a flag in an area that has become a hallmark of PT governments.

According to Tafner, although the new program has generated uncertainties, due to the large number of new benefits proposed, some of them can be very good, such as a greater incentive to formalization and school performance, “but this does not replace the need for municipal and state initiatives and The effectiveness of these new benefits remains to be verified.”