The first days of US President Donald Trump, in his second presidential term, were reassuring about international markets waiting for his writing samples.

The MSCI world stock index moved up on Friday for the ninth consecutive day, approaching a new high -level record. The euro exchange rate climbed to $ 1.05, and had fallen to $ 1.02 before Trump’s swearing -in, and the yield on US government bonds fell by about 20 basis points to 4.6%.

The scenario of an extreme US trade policy, with mass duties that would have informed inflation in America and forcing the Central Bank (FED) to maintain steady or even increase interest rates, is no longer considered possible by markets.

In speaking during his swearing -in ceremony, Trump said he aims to reduce inflation and that lifting oil extraction restrictions, which he promoted by executive decree, would lead to the fall of his honor and, by extension, to reduce his Inflation. Indeed, the price of Brent oil fell below $ 80 a barrel after the US president’s decision.

Speaking on Thursday at the Davos forum via a teleconference, Trump said he would ask the Fed to reduce interest rates. Given its independence, however, the Fed would have no way to reduce interest rates if inflation increased due to a large duty.

The first relief for investors came with the executive decrees signed by Trump after his swearing -in, in which there was no specific measure to impose new duties. Trump referred to his speech in general the prospect of imposing duties and commissioned federal services to consider what issues are available abroad in the US and to submit a finding by April 1 with the measures they propose.

Although he then threatened the European Union, China and other countries with duties, the feeling he gave is that he is using the threats to extract any concessions he can and not to take measures that would undermine the big picture of his policy. This seemed more clearly when in an interview with Fox News he would prefer not to have to impose duties on China.

In the pre -election, Trump said he would impose 60% duties on all Chinese products, and after the election he said he would discuss about 10% because the drug comes from this country.

If, indeed, it would put 60% duties on Chinese products and 10-20% on other countries’ products, as he had said pre-election, would almost, of course, lead to inflation in the US and eventually undermine the goals he had set, according to his own, according to the goals he had set, according to his own. With the IMF and other analysts.

In addition, in such a case, because there would be reciprocal measures from the endangered countries – from Canada and Mexico to the EU and China – which would react with duties on US products, the other target of Trump would also be in danger. higher growth rates of the American economy.

Obviously this is what Trump and his financial staff know this, so he does not rush to take such measures. ECB President Christine Lagarde appeared confident in statements made by Davos that there would be no horizontal US duties but targeted products.

For the European economy, however, which is moving between wear and tear, even smaller scale US duties could be a problem. In statements made by ECB executives, they expressed concern that Trump policies would affect growth in the eurozone. But not inflation, which they believe will be reduced this year to the 2% target, thus allowing new ECB cuts in 2025, with the first one expected at the next Thursday meeting.