The historical reorganization in Middle East It begins to attract international investors, who see the prospects of relative peace and economic recovery after so many turmoil.

As the Reuters agency notes in its analysis, the president’s proposal Donald Trump To take over the US Gaza may have triggered reactions, but the fragile ceasefire in the region, the removal of Bashar al -Assad from Syria, the weakened Iran and the new government in Lebanon have fueled hopes for a “reboot”.

Egypt, the most populous country in the area and a key negotiator in recent peace talks, has just achieved the first bond sale in dollars after four years. Some time ago he was confronted with the financial collapse.

Investors began buying Israeli and Lebanon bonds again, betting that Beirut can finally start correcting its interrelated political, economic and financial crises.

“The recent months have largely remodelled the area and have put into operation a very different momentum at best,” said Charlie Robertson, a veteran emerging markets at Fim Partners. The question is whether Trump’s plan for Gaza will trigger new tensions, he added.

Trump’s proposal to “clean” Gaza and create an “Middle East Riviera” was confronted with an international conviction.

The S&P Global credit rating house has said it will lift Israel’s downgrade warning if the truce lasts. It recognizes complexities, but it is a welcome statement as Israel prepares the first major sale of bonds after the signature of the truce.

Unpredictable things

Michael Fertik, an American investor and chief executive of the artificial intelligence company Modelcode.ai, said the relaxation of tensions contributed to his decision to open an Israeli subsidiary.

He is willing to hire specialized local software developers, but the geopolitical situation has also played a role.

“With Trump at the White House, no one doubts that the US supports Israel,” he said, explaining how predictability is provided even if the war is rekindled.

After staying far away when Israel increased the costs of war, bond investors are also beginning to return, as the central bank data shows. Israeli Finance Minister Nir Barkat told Reuters in an interview last month that he will seek a more generous cost of spending with an emphasis on “bold economic growth”.

The problem for stock investors, however, is that Israel was one of the world’s best performance in the world during the 18 months after the October 7th attacks. American technology – The country’s market has retreated.

“During 2024, I think we have learned that the market is not really afraid of war, but rather the internal political conflicts and tensions,” said Sabina Levy, head of research by Leader Capital Markets in Tel Aviv. And if the ceasefire does not last? “It is reasonable to assume that there will be a negative reaction,” he added.

Some investors have already reacted badly to Trump’s surprise proposal for Gaza.

Yerlan Syzdykov, head of emerging markets in the largest European AMUNDI assets management They receive 2 million Palestinian refugees – it changes the situation.

Both countries have rejected Trump’s idea, but the danger is, Syzdykov explained, that the US president is using Egypt’s dependence on bilateral support and IMF support, given the recent economic crisis.

The reduction in attacks by Yemen’s Houthi on ships in the Red Sea remains vital. The country lost $ 7 billion – over 60% of its revenue from the Suez Canal last year, as ships chose to move around Africa to avoid any attacks.

Reconstruction

Other investors expect the rebuilding of bombed houses and infrastructure in Syria and elsewhere will be an opportunity for Turkish construction companies.

Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Whitkov, said it would take 10 to 15 years to rebuild Gaza. The World Bank, meanwhile, estimates Lebanon’s losses to $ 8.5 billion, about 35% of its GDP.

Symphon with Reuters, the first state visit of the new Lebanese President Michelle Aun will take place in Saudi Arabia, a country considered a possible key supporter and who may see it as an opportunity to further remove Lebanon from Iran’s sphere.

Investors say there were initial contacts with the new authorities.

“Lebanon could be a long story in 2025 if progress is made towards debt restructuring,” said Magda Branet, a senior AXA Investment Managers executive.

“It will not be easy,” he added, however, given the country’s historian, the debt of $ 45 billion in need of restructuring and the fact that Lebanese savers could see some of their money seized by the government in the context of Plan.