Basic food basket inflation exceeds average prices; see ranking

inflation of the foods that make up the basic basket reached 12.67% in the 12-month period up to February in Brazil, according to a study produced by professors of the Economics course at PUCPR (Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná).

With the result, the indicator returned to be above the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), which had not occurred since October last year. Until February, the IPCA had an advance of 10.54% in 12 months.

“The entire population is affected by the rise in food items that make up the basic food basket. People want to buy products such as coffee, sugar, bread and meat. But it is the lower income classes that suffer the most from such high inflation”, says the economist Jackson Bittencourt, coordinator of the Economics course at PUCPR.

Comprising the variation in the prices of 13 foods, the basic food basket indicator began to be released by the university during the second half of last year. Series registrations began in September.

That month, basic food basket inflation was even higher, estimated at 15.96%. Meanwhile, the IPCA was at 10.25%.

In the following months, there was a reversal. The indicator that measures the variation of the basket lost steam, being surpassed by the IPCA in November.

The situation has now changed again. The variation of the basic food basket gained more strength at the beginning of 2022. Thus, it was again above the country’s general inflation index.

Basket rises 2.02% in February

On a monthly basis, the change in the basic food basket reached 2.02% in February. The rate was even lower than in January (2.27%). Even so, it corresponded to twice the February IPCA (1.01%).

According to the study, the 13 foods in the basket rose last month. The biggest advances were verified in the potato, which soared 23.49%, and in the carioca bean, which increased 4.77%.

In the 12-month period, the highest increase was that of powdered coffee: 61.19%. Then comes crystal sugar, which rose 36.30% in the same period. The production of both was hampered by the water crisis and frost last year.

At the start of 2022, the adverse weather returned to affect plantations, putting pressure on food prices in the country. While municipalities in the Southeast recorded excess rainfall, the South is experiencing a period of drought.

War is risk from March

The advance until February still does not include the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which raised the prices of agricultural commodities, such as wheat, corn and soybeans.

According to Bittencourt, the conflict in Eastern Europe tends to generate new pressures on the prices of the basic food basket as of March.

Foods such as French bread and soy oil, which are part of the basket, should feel the direct reflexes of the appreciation of wheat and soy, says the professor.

The mega-increase in fuel prices in Brazil, associated with the advance of oil during the war, tends to raise the costs of transporting goods, bringing risks to various prices, including those of food, according to the economist.

“Unfortunately, the expectation is for more inflationary pressure. The war creates problems all over the world”, he points out.​

The PUCPR study is based on food data that are part of the IPCA survey, calculated by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

In addition to the national scope, the university’s research also shows the inflation of the basic food basket in the metropolitan region of Curitiba.

In the capital of Paraná, the increase was 14.10% in the 12-month period up to February. That is, it was higher than the Brazilian average (12.67%).

The IPCA in Curitiba, in the same period, was 13.17%. This is the highest inflation among the capitals and metropolitan regions surveyed by the IBGE.

With rising prices and difficulties in the job market, Brazil began to record more scenes of people looking for food donations and even food leftovers during the pandemic.

In February, the values ​​of the basic food basket increased in the 17 capitals surveyed by Dieese (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies).

The worker who received a net minimum wage, that is, after deducting 7.5% from Social Security, committed 56.11% of his income, on average, to purchase the products in the basket. In January, the percentage had been lower, 55.20%, indicates Dieese.