The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) slightly revises its forecasts for global economic growth in 2025, influenced by the lowest forecasts for the United States and the Eurozone.

The commercial tensions that occur after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, geopolitical and political uncertainty in many countries exacerbate the prospects of economic growth, are explained by the OECD to justify this review.

The organization expects increase of 3.1% of world GDP in 2025against 3.3% in December forecasts.

As the US president raises the threat of trade war, the United States They will see 2.2% of their gross domestic product this year and 1.6% in the coming year, according to the OECD, which reduces 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points to the growth of the US economy in 2025 and 2026 respectively.

The severity of commercial policies decided or designed by the United States mainly affects their neighboring countries, Canada and Mexico. Forecasts for the two countries are sinking: compared to November, they are subdued for Canada, which expects 0.7% growth and decrease by 2.5 percentage points for Mexico, which will enter a recession this year, according to the OECD.

Growth in the US, Mexico and Canada “will slow down, according to forecasts, if duties are in force,” according to the international economic organization.

In its forecasts, the OECD clarifies that it has taken into account, in addition to duties between the US, Canada and Mexico, only the new duties between the US and China and the steel and aluminum duties.

Neither the threats to impose mutual ties, nor Trump’s threats to tariffs related to the European Union have been taken into account.

Nevertheless, the OECD revises the forecasts for the development of Germany and France for 2025, the first and second -largest economy in the eurozone.

OECD now expects an increase of 0.4% of its GDP Germany this year, compared to 0.7% according to previous forecasts, and 0.8% for the Francereduced by 0.1 of percentage percentage.

For the other important US partner, the Japanthe OECD expects growth of 1.1% (-0.4 of the percentage percentage). The development in China It is expected to reach 4.8% in 2025, almost unchanged compared to December (+0.1) forecasts.