We all feel it in our wallet: the price of coffee has exceeded “pre -crisis” levels, even in the most humble neighbor’s cafeteria. They also observe it: The prices of coffee In international markets for 2024 they were the highest of the last 45 years and the increases will continue, the German television (SWR) points out Hans Friedrich Sander From Coffee Circle in Berlin. He argues that “increases have caused shock even in the industry itself …”.

Coffee is the German’s favorite beverage, as the average annual consumption is estimated at 160 liters. However, continuous increases have consequences. In a recent poll by ARD television, one in four says it has limited coffee consumption, even 9% of respondents say it has “significantly reduced it”.

Is Climate Change to blame?

In general, the main reason for the constant price is the climate change and its consequences, which have been exacerbated in recent years. For example, Brazil, the largest producer and exporter of coffee in the world (followed by Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia), predicts that for 2025 the harvest will be “frustrating” for the fifth consecutive year. This is again attributed to severe weather: excessive drought and heat in summer, strong thunderstorms and frost in winter. In addition, the World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is referring to reduced production in Indonesia and a reduction in exports to Vietnam.

The coffee tree is considered an extremely sensitive plant and thrives in a geographical area of ​​a particular latitude. Research shows that 50% of arable land is threatened with extinction by 2050. Only in Central America countries it is assumed that one -third of today’s plantations will disappear within 15 years. At the same time, however, global demand is constantly increasing, especially in China and India, where coffee is now competing with tea in consumer preferences. In China alone, demand has increased by 150% in the last 10 years.

Thus, wholesale prices for the Arabica variety, which today covers over 60% of world demand, have increased by 245% in the last five years. In Germany, prices for filter coffee have almost tripled since 2022. According to Die Welt, Russia and India have already been identified. This means that coffee is mixed with other raw materials of lighter value, such as flour, malt and ground dates. Resulting in a reduction in costs and cheating the consumer. This practice is being made by the International Cafe Organization (ICO), an intergovernmental organization operating under the auspices of the United Nations.

Other cost factors

Other prices burden are the attempts to speculate on the commodity stock markets (which however has always existed), supply chain disorders and increased shipping costs as well as storage costs. Particularly because of the active war fronts and piracy in the Middle East, shipowners are forced to look for alternative routes to the Suez Canal, even choosing the African perfume if needed, with what it entails for fuel consumption.

A report on German television (MDR) estimates that another cost coefficient is the new European Union’s deforestation. The new legislative framework transfers to the merchant and producer the burden of proof that coffee and other products imported into the EU do not grow on land that became arable after dumping tropical forests in the Amazon area, thereby contributing to the greenhouse effect.

The “these” for the consumer is that in 2025 he will have to put his hand in his pocket to enjoy his coffee. “From April, May and June we will see new rates,” estimates Hans Friedrich Sunder from Coffee Circle.

(DPA, ARD, Die Welt)