Aneel technicians defend a 21% increase in the electricity bill in 2022

The government intends to avoid a 21% increase in electricity bills in 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro will be campaigning for re-election.

To reduce the impact of this tariff estimated by technicians from Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency), the Ministry of Mines and Energy is trying to accelerate the privatization of Eletrobras and convince private banks to finance the increase in generation costs due to the water shortage that has been pressing on inflation.

According to the agency’s calculations, the sector needs around R$ 15 billion to cover these extraordinary costs by the end of the first half of 2022.

The increase in electricity bills occurs once a year. Due to the water crisis, several increases were made and in different amounts, as they vary according to the distributor.

This deficit in the sector is explained because, with the lack of rain, the reservoirs ran out of water and the government had to import energy from Argentina and Uruguay (much more expensive) and activate thermoelectric plants, which already produce at more than R$2,000 per MWh (megawatt-hour).

The distributors had to pay for the purchase of this energy to meet the demand previously met by the hydroelectric plants, which generate around R$ 150 per MWh.

Not even the opening of the gas market will count in favor. Petrobras’ supply contracts, which serve 70% of distributors and industries, should double the price of gas if renewed.

A memorandum from the agency informs the need for this readjustment, which, if confirmed, will compromise Bolsonaro’s plans for reelection. One of the president’s weakest points is the accelerated deterioration of the economy.

The purchasing power of Brazilians does not stop falling and families are increasingly indebted. Energy has already increased by 19% this year, according to data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

The government intends to postpone as much as possible this transfer of 21% to the accounts in 2022. To do so, it is trying to convince private banks to launch a new round of loans to distributors — as happened last year to try to curb transfers during the pandemic .

In September, Aneel, pressured by the government, did not fully pass on the cost deficits of the distributors to the consumer. Instead of increasing it, it created a new tariff flag, called Water Scarcity, and put the difference that should be incorporated into the flag for public consultation.

This account is also included in the 21% increase forecast by Aneel’s technical area, according to technicians participating in the studies.

Another measure that the government is studying to reduce this adjustment is the return to consumers of amounts unduly paid in ICMS in the PIS/Cofins calculation basis. It also wants to allocate the savings generated by the reduction of Itaipu’s debt.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy is also trying to accelerate as much as possible the privatization process of Eletrobras, which provides for an advance of R$ 5 billion for the accounts. The capitalization process foresees, in all, a transfer of R$ 25 billion to reduce the price of energy.