US President Donald Trump is expected to announce new duties by trying to reshape international trade in terms that, in his opinion, favor the United States.

However, as no one knows what the exact price will be so much for the American and Global Economyanalysts speak of the great experiment in US economic policy.

In particular, as the Jeremy Warner of Telegraphno one can say how it will end, but nothing so revolutionary has been tested for decades with the chances of things going wrong.

Overtrifying the established world order in trade, Donald Trump not only made enemies the old allies, but also strengthened China’s hopes of displacing the US from the world scene as a defender of today’s Status Quo.

It is like abandoning American hegemony deliberately, letting others fill the void.

The probability of a large -scale global recession has just increased significantly. The impact of Trump’s actions are almost certain to be extensive and long lasting.

Only now this awareness is beginning to be perceived by investors, businesses, consumers and bankers. The change of previous perception was quickly and dramatically overturned.

If we go back just a few months, the columnist points out, the atmosphere between business leaders in the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland It was almost ecstatic.

Almost no one expressed a bad view of Trump’s presidency, which was presented as a constant Republican, Agenda -friendly, with deregulation, tax cuts and the philosophy of “pumper, baby, pumper”, rejecting both the binding of the neutral,

Almost everyone agreed that America would bloom. The pessimism for Europe, which seemed trapped in a destructive cycle of high tax, intense state intervention and economically damaging targets of delicacies, was equally intense.

The issue of duties was widely known and raised concern, but there was a belief that the logic would eventually prevail and, as in its first presidency, Trump’s threats would prove to be greater than act. The tariff threats were mainly rhetorical, with the aim of securing a fairer agreement with commercial partners, and would not cause permanent damage.

In any case, a few surprisingly few believed that Trump would do what he was saying in his election campaign. This hope proved to be naive and pious desire.

Trump always believed in the idea of ​​duties and believes that his failure to implement them more aggressively was one of the big mistakes of his first presidency.

This time he intends to keep his promises. If there are side losses along the way, he is not interested. The fact that America has benefited greatly by the post -war world order itself that now seems to want to destroy it does not seem to concern it.

For its supporters, Trump’s tariff policies concern the reconstruction of economic resilience and the revitalization of American industry. It is about overthrowing the corrosive effect of globalization on well -paid US jobs and urging foreign producers to transport their activities to the US.

And if everything goes according to the plan, it also concerns the replacement of payroll tax as a source of state revenue with the revenue from tariffs on imported goods.

Already, the US president may point out some first positive results. Apple, whose products are mainly manufactured in China, has announced investments of $ 500 billion in the US for the next five years, including new factory in Texas.

Many other technology giants are committed to investing $ 500 billion under the slogan “Stargate”, with the aim of keeping the US in the pioneer of developments in artificial intelligence.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, for its part, is committed to investing £ 100 billion in state -of -the -art production units in the US.

And, in one move clearly connected to the duty of 25% of Trump in all imported cars, South Korean Hyundai has announced $ 21 billion investments in US factory creation, including 5.8 billion for a new steel mill in Louisiana.

All this, and even more, before the big weapon or the “Liberation Day” is even implemented.

Trump can also point out other successes in trying to restructure the global economy on more sustainable lines. Germany has reached her infamous “Black Zero” budgetary rule to spend hundreds of billions of euros in defense and renewal of infrastructure.

And, at least in words, European politicians seem to have finally realized the need to better care for the defense of Epirus. Financial rules relax to allow more expenses.

It is difficult to believe that all this would have happened without the threat of withdrawal from NATO and the imposition of mass tariffs on European exports.

In the same way, China, in response to US duties, has reinforced pre -existing fiscal stimulating measures and promised greater efforts to support consumption as a compensation for Trump’s escalating trade war.

Again, this could over time help to shift demand from exports to domestic consumption, although it is a fact that Chinese leaders have promised this shift for years with limited results.

However, it is another threat to apply, and with the implementation of these policies, Trump is in danger of leading not only America but also much of the rest of the world to a prolonged recession.

Today, few economists believe that the infamous 1930s Smoot-Hawley duties were the cause of the great downturn, as its roots were more in the banking crisis of the time. However, they certainly aggravated the situation, provoking chain reactions, retaliation and competitive currencies.

In addition, the shock that Trump’s duties will cause is likely to be much larger than that of smoot-Hawley, both because trade is now a much larger part of the US and the world economy than then, and because these duties are applied from a much lower level.

Some of the biggest victims of Trump’s protectionism will be US consumers who will end up paying higher prices for their goods.

Inflationary expectations in the US are already increasing rapidly. At the same time, business and consumer confidence collapses, with several indicators marking an impending recession.

It is difficult to find a serious economist who believes that what Trump is doing is a good idea. It is, in fact, difficult to find someone who thinks he will have a positive net impact on jobs on the US industries.

But it may not be the immediate impact on the trade and activity of the economy that should be more concerned. On the contrary, it is the feeling that America retires from the world and abandons its position as a force of global stability and progress.

Perhaps Trump knows what he is doing, so radically questioning economic orthodoxy, and in the end he will be justified. But it is a huge bet – and one that is neither necessary nor wise.