H Germanythe third largest economy in the world, is highly based on exports. An indication that about 10% of total German exports go to the US. Specialist in trade issues, Lisandra Flah, from the IFO Institute of Munich, estimates that German GDP will shrink by 0.3%in the long run, as they Trump duties The car and machinery industries are mainly affected. For his part, Commerzbank leader Gerg Cremer predicts GDP declines for the next two years 0.5% and stagnation in 2025.

The President of the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) Marcel Fracther estimates that duties will lead the German economy back to recession in 2025 and calculates the damage to Germany at about $ 200 billion for the entire Trump term. The German economist believes that German GDP will find in 2028 about 1.5% lower than without US duties.

Impacts will be found in order books

Marcel Fracther expects duties to hit some areas of the German economy harder than others. He believes, however, that for the whole German economy, duty losses will be manageable, but without excluding the risk of escalation.

Luxembourg’s VP Bank chief economist Thomas Gitsel estimates that the first impact of the duties will be found in order books. It expects US companies to take fewer orders, as German products will be expensive. It even attributes to the order books a seismograph role, which will first capture how strong the duties is hit in the German economy.

Passive are the estimates of Alexander Kriger, head of the German Private Bank Hauck, Aufhäuser, Lampe: “US duties will intensify existing pressure on the German economy, resulting in more jobs. It is a shame that future government partners in Germany do not seem to launch necessary structural reforms. “

Reuters, tagesschau.de