The “bell” is ringing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as public debt levels are at the highest level than World War II, with the eurozone likely to be among the worst affected because of the uncertainty in the world economy.

According to the latest Fiscal Monitor report, the IMF predicts that global public debt will increase by 2.8 percentage points in 2025 to about 95% of gross domestic product (GDP). It also expects a further increase in almost 100% of world GDP by the end of the decade.

Its forecasts for France and Germany are particularly intense, suggesting that no country will be able to reduce its fiscal deficits to levels that are generally considered viable by the end of the decade.

France’s annual deficit, provided for 5.5% of GDP in 2025, will reach 6.1% of GDP by 2030, so its total public debt will amount to 128.4% of GDP. On the contrary, Prime Minister Francois Bairou promised to reduce the deficit to 3% by 2029, according to EU budgetary rules.

The provision for Germany is a little less worrying because of its more favorable starting point: total debt will still be less than 75% of GDP at the end of the decade, the fund estimates. However, the IMF still expects that the fiscal deficit will steadily expand from 3% of GDP to over 4% of GDP by 2030, as Berlin launches a flood of infrastructure and military spending. By comparison, in the years before the pandemic the country had a firmly budget that was either balanced or with a moderate surplus.

The fund was also negative for the US’s ability to meet the target of Finance Minister Scott Bessed to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP. He said Washington would still have a deficit of more than 5.5% of GDP at the end of the decade.

“As major policy changes and increased uncertainty are remodeling the global economic landscape, the fiscal prospects have deteriorated,” the report said.

Forecasts support the world’s repeated criticism of the world’s major financial blocks that they allow geopolitical competition to overridge free trade and cooperation, a issue that has repeatedly repeatedly reiterated in recent years as relations between the US, China and Europe have deteriorated.

As usual, the Fund reminded its voters the damage that such competition would cause in the poorest countries, arguing that “the stricter and unstable financial conditions in the United States can have an impact on emerging markets and growing economies, leading to higher costs”.

The Washington -based Foundation estimated that a significant increase in global economic uncertainty could increase debt levels by 4.5% of GDP in the medium term. In a “seriously unfavorable” scenario, the IMF warned, debt levels could reach up to 117% of GDP by 2027 – a high not observed in World War II.

One of the few countries where the Fund expects a substantial improvement in the fiscal image in the coming years is the United Kingdom. In a tacit support for Chancellor Rachel Reeves to restore stability in UK public finances, it sees the deficit only reduced to 2.3% of GDP by 2030, from 5.7% last year.