Of Chrysostom Chufi

The request for the activation of the national escape clause for defense spending (not to count the increase in defense spending on the total spending of the state) signed yesterday by the Finance Minister yesterday Kyriakos Pierrakakis It is the second step of a long chain of events that will end up in the taxation package that the Prime Minister will announce to International Exhibition of Thessaloniki of December.

The first step was to certify with the Eurostat of the unexpected even for the country’s most optimistic budgetary outcome on April 22, which measured a primary surplus € 11.4 and surplus of general government 3.18bn €.

The exception to the increase in defense spending is estimated to save on the government of about 500m €, for accuracy 480mm €which entirely enter the piggy bank which will eventually be used by the government for the 2026 taxation package to be announced in September and mainly concern the middle class. This is also the first source of revenue.

The second source has to do with the budget of 2026. The negotiation made by the previous leadership of the Ministry of Finance with Brussels had led to an agreement provided for the new framework for budgetary rules that the costs of the 2026 budget could increase by € 3.6. With the data so far (€ 1,4bn to increase pensions, € 1, the increase in the cost of the General Government and the Ministries based on the obligations undertaken and inflation, and € 1.1, other expenditure such as the increases in the State that will result from the increase of 20). 3.5 pm. So they get into the piggy bank.

The third source comes from the past and needs more extensive explanation. It all starts in 2024 when the agreement with the Commission predicted that the country could increase its costs by 2.6bn €. But 2024 is the year of budgetary surprise as we wrote at the beginning, with the Commission recognizing in Greece additional permanent revenue – mainly from the fighting of tax evasion – which we can use on the basis of new rules in the coming years (not all together in one year). Utilization that we have already begun as the government has “rocked” by these 2 billion 1.1 billion € with the announcements for the return of a rent; the $ 250 allowance to pensioners and the increase in public investment. Measures relating to 2025. For 2026 it can take advantage of the remaining 900m euros which also enter the piggy bank. Total so far 1.5m €

This amount can…lean from 2 more sources. Further increase in tax evasion revenue or reducing costs. Both scenarios are possible.

Budget execution in the first quarter of the year shows overrun from VAT revenue 365mm € or 5.6%. It cannot of course be attributed to tax evasion as quarter inflation was at 2.53% but a piece is a taxable material that “came out of the dark”.

As for spending in the first 3 months they are reduced 2.15cm € against the goal.

Skai.gr information says in government awaiting that the final space they have will be much larger than the € 1.2 of last year’s TIF.

They already have € 1.5cm and 5 months until the next TIF.