Of Chrysostom Chufi

About 50 years ago, the then Soviets were drilling in Turkmenistan in search of natural gas. An accident caused a crater 70 meters wide and 30 meters of depth in which methane is burning all this time and called “gates of hell”.

If the crater in the former ESED state has the name, the … thanks to we should look for it in Kargarg. Very small island, just 20sqm. , the only island in the Middle East with drinking water due to limestone rocks. But its value is not that. Its value lies in the fact that there is The heart of Iran’s oil industry.

The Kargg terminal leaves 90% of the oil exported by Iran (and the vast majority of reports referring to 90% ending in the ports of the Chinese province of Santong).

For this islet, Iran has threatened to threaten that if there is a blow “and we cannot export oil, then no one will export.”

And here they get in Hormoneone of the most important marine diodes on the planet. Iran itself is considered extremely unlikely (7% give Morgan) to close the close initiative. It will be like shooting his legs. But he will not hesitate to do so if the “crown of the crown” is “disturbed”.

If the tight ones are closed, Pandora’s box opens.

  • 1 out of 3 liters of maritime transport oil is channeled to the planet through the Straits.
  • 1 in 5 LNG loads on the planet has its starting point in the area and passes the narrow

Over time, 2 ports in the… nose of the Straits are becoming more and more important for maritime trade.

– Dubai’s Jebel Ali is the largest artificial port on the planet. Manages 15cm containers a year.
– Kor Facan in the Gulf of Oman, with 5m. container.

At the close of the straits we can see a launch of oil prices up to $ 130/barrel from $ 74 today, an increase of 75%.

According to the IMF For every 10% increase oil prices, World GDP recedes 0.2 points and inflation increases 0.4. The consequences worldwide will be dramatic.

The International Authority of Energy warns in its report that due to limited bypass options, shortages of oil on the market would be immediately displayed.
Things would be even worse in the case of LNG as there are no alternatives to his transfer from Qatar (second largest exporter on the planet) primarily and secondarily by the UAE.

So in countries deeply dependent on Qatar LNG such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, the blow to their industrial production would be huge.

At the same time, the competition between Asia and Europe for the LNG supply would be raised, which raised prices, which would have led to both continents to reduce electricity through natural gas, cuts in its use in public buildings and use of a report for industrial sectors.