By Vangelis Dourakis

“Kras tests” also constitute the world economy in the next 24 hours, as the world enters uncharted waters. The involvement of the United States of America on the war front, which opened between Israel and Iran, reinforced the risk and uncertainties, let alone when it is unknown that Tehran will react. Although the worst nightmares of markets – but also citizens – seem to take “flesh and bones” there are still “security valves”.

The key to the further course of the economy, of course, is energy prices and in this case the cost of oil.

How is the situation in the oil market formed

Just a few days ago in an report by the International Energy Agency, he stressed that the world market seems to be well equipped this year, as long as there are no significant disorders, as an increase in supply by 1.8 million barrels a day exceeds the increase in demand estimated at 720,000. The surplus offer is the reason that prices had fallen strongly in recent months – especially after US duties increases – and were moving below $ 70 by June 13.

And that is why the “inflated” prices of recent days are not expected to be maintained for a long time unless the whole Middle East is ignited and the production and exports of not only Iran but also of other countries in the region are affected.

Production and exports of crude oil from the Persian Gulf region continue without real problem, as Iran’s oil infrastructure was not hit, which even increased its exports, mainly to China, by about 40% in the last week to 2.4 million tonnes a day.

All of this is, of course, “paper exercises”, as “on the field” that dominates is the unpredictable: and one of them can be a possible “sealing” of the notorious hormoz straits, especially when the Iranian parliament has already turned on “green light” for such a move.

But this will not be an easy task, primarily because it will hurt Tehran itself.

The “nightmare” of international markets

Closing the straits is one of the “headaches” that markets have to deal with, but would cause a problem not only in the rest of the Gulf countries – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait – which export about 20 million barrels a day and about 20 million barrels a day.

In any case, Tehran, in order to disturb or block the strait of the hormone, would have to place mines all along the narrow, which is 55 km (34 miles) at its narrowest point.

Also, the country’s army or revolutionary guards could attempt to hit or occupy ships in the vagina, a method they have used in many cases in recent years.

In addition, while the hormoz has never been completely ruled out, it has been disturbed several times. The interruption of maritime traffic in the Gulf from Iran is not unprecedented, but any attempt would probably be addressed with a rapid and strong reaction from the US Navy, limiting the possibility of a prolonged disturbance in the offer.

The impact of ‘black gold’ increases in Greece

But what impact would the Greek economy have a possible rise in the prices of “black gold”? As he estimates, a domestic financial institution:

Any increase in oil price by $ 10 per barrel can lead to a 0.4%Greek GDP reduction.

Any increase in gas price by 10 euros per MWh may cause a 0.3%decline in GDP.

However, the Greek economy seems to have a “free corridor” in fiscal stability in the coming years in the coming years that there will be no greater escalation in the Middle East or other unpredictable negative developments in the troubled geopolitical environment.

The crisis is finding the country’s budget in good condition, with 43 billion euros in cash. In 2024, the general government’s result of the General Government’s outcome of 1.4% of GDP in a surplus of 1.3% of GDP has been recorded for the first time in recent years.

The primary outcome of the General Government stood at a surplus of 4.8% of GDP, significantly exceeding the budget.

In other words, the domestic economy seems to be able to withstand the shocks to be caused, as long as they do not arise much larger “storms”.