Markets were concerned about the bombing of US aircraft of a large Middle East oil producer. An initial rise in crude price turned into a sharp fall, as soon as they realized that oil flows would continue unaffected, the Bloomberg news agency notes.

The year was in 1991, and the US bombing campaign was turning against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. In just one night, prices collapsed by 30%.

Three decades later, oil traders gather their “pieces” from a 12 -day “train of terror” who saw the prices go down and fall during the most “explosive” oil trading period from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Once again, the traders spent nights stuck in their offices, participated in telecommunications in the early morning hours and worked continuously in government and military connections to find information that would give them an advantage in transactions. Just as in 1991, the initial rise was quickly turned into a fall, as traders focused on whether the oil would continue to flow. And indeed, that happened.

The previous fortnightly provided thirty evidence of psychological change that has taken place in a market that was long haunted by the memories of cataclysm prices due to conflict in the Middle East in the 1970s and 1980s. For today’s oil traders.

News -resistant purchases

“Shopping today is much more news -resistant – they go straight to the question of whether or not there will be an offer disorder, with the backdrop of how much surrender capacity there is,” said Mike Muller, a former leader of the Vitol Group in Asia and former Head of A Argos Oil Transaction.

Muller remembers, as a young trader in the Shell’s oil contract office, negotiating on January 16, 1991, and leave his office only in the morning, when his bosses ordered him to go home. Shell had decided to sell to each rally, and Muller sold one cargo after another as the market was going up and then collapsed.

The straits of the hormoz

Today’s merchants, like those in 1991, have spent the last two weeks “fighting” with the prospect of a supply disorder that occurs only once in a generation: a break at the Ommuz Passage, from which it is transferred about one fifth of the world oil.

The traders in some offices in Geneva and London worked in shifts to secure 24 -hour coverage – although in fact many remained awake anyway, scanning the flows of social media and participating in emergency calls.

At higher rhythms the oil flows

As traders were trying to figure out if things would be different this time, they focused on satellite images over Iran and Ormuz, where not only was there no disorder, but at least the oil flows seemed higher. On the coast of Iran every day, a steady flow of tankers received the barrels and sailed to the ocean. While Tehran’s empty ships had been scattered – probably for security reasons – Iran’s oil flowed at a rate of about 40% higher than the rest of the year.

With “guide” the so -called Trump

However, while traders today have a huge volume of digital information, from real -time satellite images to second -second “crowd reports” on social media, some of the leading natural oil traders in the world were pointing out how they spent two weeks: Elsewhere to understand the direction of war and Iran’s ability to respond.

This insight has helped to increase the certainty that the US would enter the battle and that Iran would not close the hormoz, they said.

A senior executive said he told staff to watch Donald Trump’s posts on social media as a guide to what should be done next. On June 16, the president published on his website Truth Social: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

Optional rights were “launched”

As the rapid pace of headlines meant that the negotiation of the argon deadlines suddenly became much more dangerous, the money entered into the option of the optional rights, where traders can enter into security against an increase with cheaper costs than any costs.

There, the markets were moving so fast that traders and brokers had to constantly adjust the prices of the agreements or risk losing their jobs, as every new title that marked escalating pushed the volatility and cost of buying this insurance. The record volume of optional rights changed hands and the total amount trafficked within just seven business days was the one usually observed within several months.

“In times of geopolitical risk traders are moving to the market for the option and not to purchase time contracts,” said Nicky Ferguson, head of the Energy Aspects Ltd. “We haven’t seen a big change in the positions of hedge funds in Futures in the last month, but their upward exposure to the option has been launched,” he said.

It is indicative, however, that traders did not place bets on astronomical prices at the same rate they made in previous rally. Even when hostilities between Iran and Israel were exacerbated after the October attacks last year and some contracts had expired, there were still about 130,000 pending $ 100 -dollar purchase contracts for the next six months of negotiation. At the moment, bets are about 60% of the size that was then.

Diesel threat

While all the “cogs” of the oil market suddenly twisted, the diesel flows were among those who were more threatened by any mormuz disorders. Prices jumped from $ 85 to $ 110 a barrel, as traders who bet on the slowdown in global development were forced to fill their positions, said market -involved people.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s oil trading offices, where barrels from the Middle East are purchased and sold for Asia Minor, a weird quiet emerged. There, the negotiation of the spot loads essentially stopped at a time when it would normally be the busiest of the month, as traders were expecting to see what would happen next.

The “drama” of the weekend

Two weekends of the war created moments of drama in the markets and traders had to make difficult decisions ahead of Monday’s opening. When markets reopened on June 16, prices rose briefly before they retreated, as traders focused on uninterrupted oil flows.

A week later, the stakes were even higher after the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US during the second weekend of the war. However, the production and trade of oil remained unaffected.

Traders were trying to analyze whether they could accurately predict Monday’s transactions. Others confidently told their clients that prices were going to fall, while some described how they spent Sunday preparing the sale in the opening, but lost their conviction as Iran was sworn in revenge. Prices increased with the commencement of transactions.

However, the market did not take long to follow Muller’s slogan since 1991: “Sale, Sale, Sale”.

Iran’s sluggish response to the US bombs sent the prices to the Tartars, and until the opening of the crude on Tuesday morning, the oil was negotiating $ 10 below the level it had touched when the transactions began a day earlier.