US Commercial Policy He has entered a Libo, In a marginal situation where high duties on major commercial partners are apparently resulting in, but are constantly remaining at the forefront, Axios comments on an analysis.

The good news for US consumers and businesses is that possible pricing shocks and other turmoil from a total world trade war remain controlled – and Wall Street faces this confused landscape coolly.

The bad news is that it is not the kind of political landscape that favors companies to make long -term investments.

With the famous 90 -day negotiations To expire on Wednesday, President Trump issued a series of letters announcing new duties to major commercial partners close to those initially announced on April 2nd “Day of Liberation”.

The most economical consequences are 25% duties on imports from Japan and South Korea, important commercial partners and traditional geopolitical allies. But they will not come into force before August 1, after three weeks.

On Tuesday morning, Trump insisted that the imposition of higher duties is real this time, implying that this is not just a negotiating maneuver.

“DASUS will begin to be paid on August 1, 2025. There has been no change by this date and there will be no change,” wrote on Truth Social. ‘No extensions will be given’ insisted.

However, markets have largely ignored these threats, believing that Trump intends to use them mainly as a negotiating paper for future trade agreements and, therefore, will probably continue to postpone or reduce the actual implementation of the damaging duties.

Shares, bonds and foreign markets have reacted to the news with small fluctuations, as opposed to their fall in early April.

Meanwhile, inflation was held at low levels for April and May, as opposed to the warnings of business leaders and economists that duties would supply prices and there would be a risk of deficiencies.

The combination of a flourishing stock market and lack of obvious financial damage from the previous duties implementation seems to have given Trump the opportunity To continue to promote duties discussions, rather than closing fast deals and moving on.

These are, as Bob Eliot of Unlimited Funds wrote, “The Schreediger’s tariffs”, At the same time live and dead.

The US government “has the opportunity to return to a more aggressive political stance towards the trade war, because so far the impact is not felt significantly throughout the economy,” he wrote in his newsletter Nonconsensus.

“But an important reason for which there was no effect on this case is simply because it takes time to speed up the possible duties, and then it takes time to get (the collection) to the real economy given normal delays,” Eliot supported.

The fact that negotiations with countries such as Japan and South Korea were in such a impasse that Trump rekindled the trade war is a sign of new regularity.

“At a very basic level, nothing actually happened based on the sending of these letters from Trump, Therefore there is no reason to panic For headings’, Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research wrote in a note.

“But we believe that these moves contain a message about where the trade war is directed, and this message is on the mostly ” hawki ” (harsh policy), “he added.

If the duties announced on Monday come into force and remain in force, this will translate into an average tariff factor of 17.6% on US imports, according to estimates by Yale Budget Lab, The highest since 1934. This figure is increased from 15.8% previously and from 2.4% in January.

If maintained, the current tariff regime will translate into a 1.7% increase in consumer prices, costing the average household $ 2,300 per year, According to the Yale Budget Lab.

In conclusion, there are well -founded reasons to believe that Trump’s latest letters to commercial partners are a negotiating strategy, but the fact that they exist is warning sign For the new world commercial landscape.

As long as the economy can withstand and markets are okay, the prospect of trade war will not be removed.