‘I’m only sure when I see money in the account,’ says a resident of São Paulo’s periphery about Auxílio Brasil

Unemployed since the pandemic began last year, Eliza Cavalcante Reis, 31, started receiving Bolsa Família in February and is in doubt about what will happen in the coming months.

“I don’t know who will receive the Brazil Aid. They say that whoever was on Bolsa Família will go straight away, but who will know,” says Eliza.

A resident of Pirituba, in the northern region of São Paulo, she works odd jobs as a hairdresser’s assistant. He lives only with his four-year-old son and receives no pension.

“I’m afraid they’ll say I’m not entitled [ao novo benefício]. If it hasn’t chipped, I don’t know what I’m going to do. It seems that the value is better than Bolsa Família, but I don’t know, I don’t know if it’s safe, if it will lead to something further,” he says.

Beneficiaries who live on the outskirts of São Paulo report that they expect “to see the money in the account” to believe in Auxílio Brasil. The Bolsa Família report indicates that 412 thousand families would be in a condition of extreme poverty in the city if they did not have the benefit, whose average value in the capital of São Paulo was R$ 76.11 per person.

The promise of the Jair Bolsonaro government is that all of the more than 14.6 million beneficiaries of Bolsa Família receive Brazil Aid. In addition to these, there is a forecast to clear the waiting list, which would make the program reach 17 million families in the country.

The promise is also of greater value: the average will rise from BRL 189 to BRL 217, a value that will rise to BRL 400 if the PEC dos Precatórios, which defaults on federal debts recognized by the courts, is approved in the Senate. The text has already passed through the Chamber of Deputies.

According to the government, the approval of the PEC would free up space in the Union’s budget to guarantee the higher amount until December 2022. There is no forecast of how the program will work in the following year.

For housewife Rosilene Novaes, 43, the vagueness of 2023 sounds deliberate. “He [o presidente Bolsonaro] he’s not thinking about 2023. He’s thinking only until the end of 2022, which is his term. That’s why people are confused,” he says.

Rosilene lives in Capão Redondo, south of São Paulo, and was a beneficiary of Bolsa Família. Her benefit was interrupted during the period in which she received emergency aid, an amount that helped her to pay the INSS (National Social Security Institute) booklet and to organize the weekly fair.

“From what I understand, [o Auxílio Brasil] it’s kind of to escape emergency aid for everyone and just stay at Bolsa Família. Instead of improving, it made it more difficult for people”.

Emergency aid began in April 2020 as a way to mitigate the economic impacts caused by the new coronavirus pandemic. Its initial value was R$600, reduced in the second half of that year to R$300. The program was suspended in December and resumed in April of this year, with values ​​ranging from R$150 to R$375.

A resident of Guaianases (eastern zone) who asked not to be identified says that the reduction in the amount of the benefit was difficult because it coincided with the increase in staple foods such as rice and beans.

She says that she didn’t understand how Auxílio Brasil will be, especially with the fake news that spread through social networks.

The difference in the value of the emergency benefit to that of Auxílio Brasil also worries Graziele Alves, 36, resident of Cidade Ademar, in the south zone.

She received R$375 in 2021 for being a solo mother and head of the family. Unemployed for three years, Graziele works odd jobs in a school van and uses the amount to pay her rent.

With the end of the aid, the forecast is that he will receive the R$ 180 that were made available through Bolsa Família.

“What can you do with R$ 180 these days? Gas is R$ 105, then I have rent, my son, who needs to eat, wear clothes, put on a slipper. There are times when I feel crazy, desperate, not knowing what to do”.

She claims that it was necessary to reduce company taxes, to try to increase the number of job vacancies. During the pandemic, he did not work because the school was closed.

“So I would turn around, go to someone’s house, do some cleaning, but even so it was very little because not everyone wanted me to enter the houses [por causa dos riscos da Covid-19]”, account.

“I can’t say [como serão os próximos meses], the only thing I know is that worry comes, there is no way. I’m really worried because I don’t know what it’s going to be like.”

In 2020, emergency aid reached more than 68 million people. With the change of rules for 2021, which only allowed the receipt of one person per family, the number has dropped to almost half.

In the analysis of the director of FGV Social, Marcelo Neri, the greatest uncertainty about the efficiency of Auxílio Brasil lies in the absence of approximately 25 million Brazilians who received emergency aid but who are not registered with Bolsa Família.

All this amid rising food prices – inflation reached 10.67% in the 12-month period up to October.

“In the immediate field of view, what will make the most difference in families’ pockets is the end of emergency aid, which is more generous than Bolsa Família. If we were to go back to the original Bolsa Família, we would add another 6.8 million of people in the ‘new poor’ account,” explains Neri.

“Poverty will increase, in the short term and again in 2023. In 2022, this retractable aid [o Auxílio Brasil de R$ 400] it will make poverty fall like it did when full aid came into effect, when we had the lowest poverty in the historical series”.

For Antônia Cleide, community leader and president of Unas (Union of Nuclei and Associations of Residents of Heliópolis and Region), the feeling that remains in view of the concern with the end of emergency aid is one of impotence.

“We believed that because of all this need, there would be income distribution, taxation [dos mais ricos em favor dos mais pobres], had an income for these people, as a policy, as Bolsa Família was, a state policy”, assesses the community leader of the largest favela in São Paulo.

She points out that it took years for the previous program to come into operation and be understood by residents, as well as the forms of payment.

“People are discredited. You talk about the aid and they say they won’t believe it until they come to terms with it.”