The numbers of the planted area in the United States, data to be released this Thursday (31), will not be definitive, but they may already indicate a good scenario for corn producers in Brazil.
The data will be presented by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) and will indicate the initial preferences of the producers in the main crops of the country.
In view of world prices, North Americans opt more for wheat. In southern states, such as Mississippi, where corn takes precedence over cotton in certain years, the scenario should not be repeated in this one.
Cotton is at record prices and it will be difficult for corn to attract the preference of producers in these regions.
In the Midwest, where the largest corn producers in the country are concentrated, the cost of nitrogen has soared, weighing heavily on farmers’ pockets.
Growers in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Minnesota, leaders in corn production, will weigh costs and income between soybeans and corn well before putting the machines in the field.
Faced with this unfavorable situation for corn, Fernando Muraro, director of AgRural, says he is curious to know what will be the number referring to the area of ​​corn to be released by Usda this Thursday.
His bet is on a reduction of at least 1 million hectares. If USDA does not confirm this area now, it may adjust the data over the next few months, as it does every year. That’s what happened in the 2021/22 crop, he says.
If Muraro’s calculations are correct, American corn production could fall by 12 million to 15 million tons.
Such a volume, in a period when it is not known how much Ukraine will be able to sow, interferes in the world market. Brazilian safrinha corn will be important in this balance of world supply and demand.
In the case of soybeans, the area expansion to be announced will be from 600,000 to 800,000 hectares, according to the analyst.
For him, the world starts to look, from now on, to the development of the crop in the United States, not forgetting, however, the climate in the Brazilian safrinha.
The North Americans will sow the 2022/23 crop. In the previous one, the soybean area was 35.3 million hectares, with production of 121 million tons, and the corn area reached 37.8 million hectares, with a harvested volume of 384 million tons. The numbers are from USDA.
After a Tuesday of declines, agricultural commodities recorded a strong rise this Wednesday in the Chicago and New York markets. Wheat and soybeans rose 1.3%; corn, 1.6%.
Coffee and cotton had the highest increases of the day, with increases of 3.2% and 2.3%, respectively. The May cotton contract was at $1.40 per pound.
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