The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, holding a standing stance for its future moves and leaving all the possible open.

With the deposit rate remaining at 2%, the question that concerns purchases and borrowers is whether it will be the final station in this circle of monetary relaxation, after 8 reductions in the last 12 months or whether there will be another reduction or reductions by the end of the year. Another question, less likely but real, is whether the next change in its policy, after some time, will be about an increase and not reduce interest rates.

All of these are possible, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, who linked the decisions to be taken at its next meetings with the outcome of the negotiation between the European Union and the US on the issue of duties and the impact it will have on inflation and growth.

In September, it is most likely that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged again, as no significant differentiation in Eurozone inflation data is expected. Beyond that, whether the “freezing” of interest rates will continue or whether there will be another decline by the end of the year, it will depend on the course of the economy and the reaction it will show any outcome of the negotiation for duties.

In any case, it is certain that interest rates will not return to zero or negative levels of the previous 10 years. If there is a decrease it will be small – in the order of 25 base units or a maximum of half a percentage percentage – and only if there is a significant and sustainable decrease in inflation below its 2% target or if there is a new and large slowdown in the eurozone economic recovery.

Increased interest rates is the least likely scenario, as it presupposes a bad outcome of the negotiation – failure to have an agreement that will result in much higher than current US duties and EU countermeasures – while at the same time a significant increase in inflation due to each other.

This scenario is not excluded from some “hawks” on the ECB’s Board of Directors, which believe that a large increase in duties can lead to disruption to European business supply chains and increase their production costs. On the other hand, however, the very high duties would hit grow in the eurozone more and therefore would limit prices. Therefore, the reduction in demand due to duties, coupled with the appreciation of the euro since the beginning of the year, would reduce inflation, as does the unfavorable scenario drawn up by ECB experts in June, taking into account 20% of US duties and reciprocal duties on US products.

Based on information that has seen the light of publicity, however, it is more likely that there will be an EU-US Agreement in principle, with the amount of duties being 15%. As in the case of the Japan -US Agreement. Consequently, based on this scenario – since they are incorporated into 15% and the tariffs that were in force before April – we will be close to what is true today.

Beyond that, of course, there are other points of the agreement that are important, such as the height of the sectoral duties – for aluminum, steel, cars and future drugs and semiconductors – or non -tariff barriers.

The US side also insists on the EU commitment that investment in the US will be made, in proportion to Japan’s commitment to $ 550 billion in the US market.