Autumn cold in northern Europe is probably predisposed to a harsh winter. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the European Natural Gas Provider Association representing 72 businesses in 25 countries, in mid -September savings in Europe was full by 80% while in September 2024 the corresponding rate was 90%. Problem;

Having differentiated the power sources after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Member States of the European Union have largely turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Norway, US or Qatar. At the same time, they continue to develop renewable energy sources, including solar and wind energy. Since Brussels is no longer concerned about a serious or unpredictable energy crisis, they have given the Member States a time to reach 90% of the fullness of the savings by December 1st.

‘No prices rise’

Petra Katina, an analyst at Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, tells Deutsche Welle that today’s fullness levels ensure a “strong stock” of energy for winter. On the other hand, he stresses that the particularities of the market and the volatile weather conditions “could cause temporary increases in energy prices or temporary deficiencies, in places”. Obviously no comparison with the particularly alarming situation in the winter of 2022.

For Tom Marzek-Mancher, Wood Mackenzie analyst, this winter the energy supply is enhanced, while demand- especially for gas- probably recedes. “This certainly facilitated the replenishment of stocks by the summer, to a large extent,” says the British analyst at Deutsche Welle. Nevertheless, he estimates that Europe remains vulnerable to geopolitical upheavals, especially after US President Donald Trump’s threats to impose duties on those who are still supplying natural gas from Russia.

New uncertainty due to duties

Trump has been pressing on Brussels lately to impose punitive duties on countries that still supply energy from Russia, arguing that duties will put an additional pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. A few days ago, US Finance Minister Scott Bessed appealed to the EU and the G7 team to impose “strong” duties on China and India, two countries that have entered into energy cooperation agreements with Russia.

For India, the US president has already announced 50%duties. China is in a stronger negotiating position and Donald Trump is called upon to re -elaborate his plans.

Ukraine denounces agreement with Russia

Another aggravating element for Europe’s energy supply could be the complaint of the Russian-Ukrainian agreement on the part of Kiev in late 2024. It sounds unnatural, but until recently- and despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine- the Russian natural gas that was headed by the Ukraine. In fact, Moscow had to ease money in Kyiv for the use of the network. However, on December 31, Ukraine decided not to renew the agreement, closing one of the last channels to provide Russian gas to the EU.

In countries such as Austria, Slovakia and Hungary that continue to supply natural gas from Moscow- despite western sanctions- fears of significant shortcomings are expressed. Already last winter, prices rose up to 50%. However, it seems that the balances have come back and forecasts for the following winter are rather optimistic, especially because of the diversification of energy sources.

“The reduction in the total volume of energy supplies was not as important, although some countries, such as Slovakia, were forced to look for new suppliers,” Tom Marzek-Mancher said. In the Europeans’ energy mix, Russia’s gas imports have fallen to 19% today compared to 45% in the early 2022, while Russian imports amount to only 3% of the total compared to 27% before the war in Ukraine.

Indeed, last May, the Commission announced a “roadmap” for complete detachment from Russian energy exports by 2027. It is left to see if this target will actually be implemented, as “some countries in the Visgrad Group have not made sufficient efforts to develop and make it enough to differentiate Welle.

Curated by: Yiannis Papadimitriou