Cyclical systemic risks remain limited in Greece for the fourth quarter of 2025, while the risk environment appears neutral, notes the Bank of Greece in its quarterly assessment.

Thus, the BoE set the countercyclical capital buffer rate for Greece at 0.5%, i.e. at the level of the targeted positive countercyclical capital buffer rate in a risk-neutral environment, with an implementation date of October 1, 2026.

The quarterly assessment of the intensity of cyclical systemic risks and the adequacy of the countercyclical capital buffer ratio for Greece takes into account the standardized credit-to-GDP gap, the buffer buffer and, importantly, additional indicators for the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks.

The safety buffer guide, as defined in Recommendation ESRB/2014/1 of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), is “zero”, as the standardized credit-to-GDP gap has remained negative since Q3 2012 and, based on the latest available data, Q1 2025 to -23.4 percentage points.

In addition, the Bank of Greece examines additional indicators for the creation and accumulation of cyclical systemic risks, concerning credit developments, the debt burden of the private sector, residential and commercial real estate, external imbalances, the banking sector and capital markets (see attached table “Cyclical Systemic Risk Indicators”). The analysis of additional indicators highlights the beginning of the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks in individual sectors, such as the financing of non-financial enterprises, residential real estate prices and the current account balance, but overall confirms the assessment of the absence of excessive credit expansion. In conclusion, cyclical systemic risks in Greece for the fourth quarter of 2025 remain limited and the risk environment appears neutral.

At the present juncture, the macroeconomic environment in Greece, the further improvement of the fundamentals and supervisory indicators of the banking sector, as well as the restructuring of less important banks, continue to form favorable conditions for the creation of an adequate macroprudential space that will ensure the stability of the financial system in the medium term.

With Executive Committee Act 248/1/06.10.2025, the Bank of Greece set the countercyclical capital buffer rate for Greece at 0.5%, i.e. at the level of the intended rate of positive countercyclical capital buffer in a risk-neutral environment, with an implementation date of October 1, 2026. The positive countercyclical capital buffer safety stock in neutral risk environment in Greece is activated at an early stage of the economic and financial cycle, when cyclical systemic risks are neither subdued nor particularly elevated. For the period from 1.10.2025 to 30.09.2026, the countercyclical capital buffer rate that credit institutions will maintain is 0.25%, according to Executive Committee Act 235/2/07.10.2024.