The number of people with some type of job at the beginning of the year has returned to the level recorded in 2020, just before the beginning of the epidemic. It surpassed by almost 8 million the number of occupied at the beginning of 2021, in the full horror of Covid. These are data from IBGE’s Pnad for the quarters ending in February.
Could this recovery in employment be the reason for the recovery of some points by Jair Bolsonaro in the election polls and the government’s evaluation?
“Some type of job” includes odd jobs, jobs that the IBGE calls “self-employment” without registration of a CNPJ. Yes, there are a lot of bad, precarious, insecure jobs. However, the number of formal employees in the total of people with some work is now practically the same as in 2020, just over 57%.
It is true that the salary has dropped terribly. “Real income from work fell from R$ 2,741 two years ago to the current R$ 2,511, that is, a loss of 8.4%. “, write economists at Bradesco in a report on the subject released this Wednesday (6).
What counts most? Have any income from work or have lost purchasing power? It should also be remembered that this is an average income. There are variations there by income class and, in general, the poorest are more affected by unemployment than the richest.
It is foolhardy to try to explain variations in political prestige by variations in economic indicators, even more so when the changes are not great and, moreover, little is understood of what has changed the Brazilian economy in this almost decade of depression with epidemic.
Even so, many economists see a faster-than-expected improvement in the labor market (at least in terms of employment) and estimate that the unemployment rate may be lower than expected by the end of this year.
The government can still gain some points with the entry into force of some measures of the electoral stimulus package, in particular with the permission of withdrawals from FGTS accounts. In this 2022, more people will also get a job or a little money, even if the interest rate tourniquet is slowly making the economy go from slow to almost stopping by the end of this year.
If there is no turnaround in the world economy (interest rates, war, supply problems, dollar), the government may even be lucky to see a slight reduction in fuel prices. All else being equal, these are factors that can yield a couple of points in the polls.
And?
The more Bolsonaro grows in the polls, the lower the chances of a candidate from the “Democratic Center” (new name of the bankrupt “Terceira Via”) or a Ciro Gomes (PDT) seem viable in the horse race of electoral polls, apart from marketing miracles. or social networks. In other words, there may be anticipation of useful votes, a stampede of parties and politicians for the two leading horses and other demobilizations in support of a third option.
Lula da Silva (PT) may even help Bolsonaro’s consolidation, given the amount of shooting in the foot with his pre-campaign statements, in particular this week. There are congressmen from the various centers, potential adherents, wondering if the PT is right in the head. Furthermore, Lula and, in particular, the PT, almost interrupted what appeared to be a larger program of alliances, which had been announced with the accession of Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).
June is usually the best month to place less uncertain bets on the election. But at the beginning of the quarter, only Bolsonaro is scoring.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
