Fueled by gasoline, inflation measured by the IPCA-15 (National Index of Consumer Prices Extended 15) accelerated to 1.73% in April, reported this Wednesday (27th) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
It’s the biggest change for the month in 27 years. That is, since April 1995 (1.95%), the initial period of the Plano Real. In March 2022, the IPCA-15 had risen 0.95%.
Even with the surge, the April result came below financial market estimates. In the median, analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an advance of 1.84%.
With the entry of data for April, the IPCA-15 started to accumulate a high of 12.03% in 12 months. Until March, it was at 10.79%.
The official inflation index in Brazil is the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), also released by the IBGE.
As the IPCA variation is calculated over the reference month, the April data is not yet complete. It will be known on the 11th of May.
The IPCA-15, as it is released earlier, signals a price trend. The leading indicator is usually calculated between the second half of the previous month and the first half of the reference month of the disclosure.
In this case, prices were collected from March 17 to April 13. This means that the index captured economic reflections of the initial phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Gasoline pulls IPCA-15
With the conflict in Eastern Europe, there was a spike in oil prices on the international market, which led Petrobras to promote a mega-increase in fuel prices at refineries on March 11.
According to the IBGE, eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed in the IPCA-15 had price hikes in April. The biggest change (3.43%) and the main impact (0.74 percentage point) came precisely from transport, which accelerated in relation to March (0.68%).
The group’s result was influenced by the increase in fuel prices (7.54%). THE gasoline rose 7.51%. Thus, it accounted for the largest individual impact on the month’s IPCA-15 (0.48 percentage points).
There were also increases in diesel oil (13.11%), ethanol (6.60%) and vehicular gas (2.28%).
Still in transportation, air tickets, which had fallen in March (-7.55%), rose 9.43% in April. The prices of voluntary vehicle insurance (3.03%) accelerated for the eighth consecutive month, accumulating an increase of 23.46% in 12 months.
Taxis (4.36%), subway tickets (1.66%) and urban buses (0.75%) did not escape the scarcity either.
more expensive food
The food and beverage segment followed the groups, behind transport. The rise in this segment was 2.25%, with an impact of 0.47 percentage on the IPCA-15.
The result of food and beverages was driven by items consumed at home (3%), with highlights for tomatoes (26.17%) and long-life milk (12.21%). The two products contributed with 0.16 percentage points to the IPCA-15 result.
Other foods also had significant increases. This is the case of carrots (15.02%), soybean oil (11.47%), potato (9.86%) and French bread (4.36%).
Earlier this year, food production was impacted by adverse weather in Brazil. Heavy rains in the Northeast and Southeast and a severe drought in the South affected several plantations. Thus, they generated reflections on the supply and prices of food.
The war in Ukraine also pressured the prices of agricultural commodities, such as wheat, an input used in the manufacture of bread, pasta and biscuits.
Together, the transport and food and beverage groups accounted for around 70% of the IPCA-15 in April, says the IBGE. In the comparison between different months, the increase of 1.73% is the highest of the index since February 2003 (2.19%).
In the 12-month period, the previous indicator is well above the inflation target pursued by the BC (Central Bank) for the IPCA.
The center of the reference measure is 3.50% in 2022. The ceiling was set at 5%.
Financial market analysts project the target to be exceeded in 2022, which would mean the second consecutive year of noncompliance.
The high forecast by the market for the IPCA is 7.65% until December, according to the median of the Focus bulletin, published by the BC. There are financial institutions that project an even greater advance, in the range of 8%.
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