Central government accounts – which include the National Treasury, Social Security and the Central Bank – had a negative result of R$ 6.3 billion in March, the National Treasury reported this Thursday (28).
The result shows that the government spent more than it collected last month. It was the worst data for March since 2020, discounting the effect of inflation.
Despite the deficit in the month, public accounts were in the dark in the first quarter of the year, with a positive balance of R$ 49.6 billion, thanks to an expressive surplus in the month of January.
For the Treasury, the result of the first three months is indicative that the balance of accounts in 2022 may be better than projected in the evaluation report of the Budget for the first two months.
In March, the Ministry of Economy announced an estimated deficit of R$66.9 billion in the accounts this year — a better result than that authorized in the LDO (Budget Directive Law), which allows for a deficit of up to R$170.5 million. billion.
“The results obtained in the first quarter of the year suggest that the central government’s primary balance may be higher than projected in the report”, says the agency.
The Treasury points out as evidence of this better performance a more expressive growth in net revenue, which had a nominal increase of 18.8% in March compared to the same month of 2021. The official forecast is more conservative, with an advance of 6.8%.
On the expenditure side, there was a growth of 26.3% in nominal terms (or 13.5% when discounting the effect of inflation) in the month, but the Treasury emphasizes that the continuity of this movement is limited by the spending ceiling – anchor government fiscal policy that limits the advance of expenditures to the variation of inflation.
The reduction in the fiscal gap has been highlighted by members of the economic team as a sign of improvement in the accounts.
“The good results recorded at the beginning of 2022 point to the continuity of the fiscal consolidation process, the result of the good moment of collection and control of expenses”, says the Treasury.
The agency points out, however, that this effort needs to continue in the coming years. The most recent estimates by the government itself indicate that the deficit scenario in the accounts will remain until 2024, as anticipated by the Sheet.
“A more consistent reduction of public debt requires more robust positive primary results”, says the Treasury.
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