Economy

Dollar starts lower this Tuesday, on the eve of a decision on interest rates

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The dollar opened this Tuesday, the first of two days of meetings between the central banks of Brazil and the United States — in decline, although it remained well above the R$5 mark, with operators focused on monetary policy decisions and their potential impact on the economy. local and international foreign exchange market.

At 9:05 am (GMT), the spot dollar retreated 0.46%, to R$ 5.0479 on sale.

On B3, at 9:05 am (GMT), the first-maturity dollar futures contract dropped 0.74% to R$5.0920.

The US currency closed the last session up 2.58%, at R$5.0712 on sale, the biggest daily appreciation since April 22 (+4.07%), which had been the dollar’s most intense jump. since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The currency also registered the highest level for closing since last March 16 (R$ 5.0917).

​After advancing 3.8% in April, the commercial dollar operated on a firm rise against the real throughout the last session, to close with gains of 2.60% in the first trading session of May, quoted at R$ 5.072 for sale. It was the highest value since March 16, when the currency closed the session quoted at R$5.092.

Investors started the week with their eyes on monetary policy decisions in Brazil and the United States this Wednesday (4th).

At the meeting of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BC (Central Bank), the market expects an increase of 1 percentage point for the Selic rate, to 12.75% per year.

In the case of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank of the United States), the expectation is for a rise of 0.5 point in the local interest rate, to 1% per year.

On the Brazilian stock exchange, after closing the month of April down by 10.1%, the biggest monthly low since March 2020, the Ibovespa also returned to operate in the negative field this Monday.

The main stock index of the Brazilian market registered a devaluation of 1.15% in the first trading session of the week, at 106,638 points.

Increasing market concerns about the new wave of Covid-19 in China and the impacts on the performance of the global economy also weighed on investors’ mood.

Shares of major commodity exporters are among the biggest contributors to the broad index’s fall the day before – Petrobras’ common shares fell 1.8%, while Vale’s shares dropped 0.4%. Shares of the airlines Azul a and Gol marked the biggest losses on the Ibovespa on the day, with drops of 7.2% and 6%, respectively.

International market

On the global stage, the prospect of a more aggressive monetary tightening in developed markets to face the persistent inflationary pressure in the region was what weighed the most for US equities last month – the shares of the Nasdaq index, where there is a greater concentration of technology companies, had a 13.3% drop, the biggest drop in October 2008.

“The increase in interest rates is aimed at controlling inflation, but it brings negative short-term pressure to the stock markets, especially between technology and high-growth stocks projected for the future, by raising the discount rate used in the growth projections of companies”, says Paula Zogbi, analyst at Rico Investimentos.

On Monday, after the sharp drop in the previous session, the American indices experienced some recovery. The S&P was up 0.57% and the Dow Jones was up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq closed up 1.63%.

with Reuters

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