Bradesco predicts that the bank’s default rate, which rose from 2.5% in March 2021 to 3.2% at the end of the first quarter, should maintain its upward trajectory in the coming months.
According to Octavio de Lazari Junior, CEO of Bradesco, the expectation is that the rate of delays over 90 days will increase between 0.10 and 0.20 percentage points during the second quarter of the year, reaching levels close to 3.5%.
The change in the credit portfolio mix, with an expansion of higher spread lines (in a simplified way, the profit on the operation) among individuals, as in the credit card, contributes to the increase in the rate of arrears, said Lazari, during a press conference this Friday (6).
Among individuals, the rate of delays of more than 90 days reached 4.4% in March 2022, compared to 3.5% in March 2021 and 3.8% in December last year.
Already for the second half, “the default should present relative stability”, commented the Executive.
“Bradesco achieved a considerable expansion of its credit portfolio, but it also had a consistent growth in its delinquency, a factor that we consider crucial for the sustainable return of a bank, especially in the face of the more sensitive macroeconomic scenario”, says Rodrigo Crespi, an analyst at Guide Investments.
Around 11 am, the bank’s shares were up 1.1%, compared to the 1.2% drop in the broad Ibovespa index.
Bradesco had recurring net income of R$6.8 billion in the first quarter of 2022, which corresponds to a growth of 4.7% compared to the same period last year, and of 3.1% compared to the same period last year. immediately preceding quarter, according to balance sheet released on Thursday (5).
The bank’s loan portfolio reached R$834.5 billion at the end of March, which is equivalent to an expansion of 18.3% on an annual basis and of 2.7% at the margin.
One of the highlights of the first quarter, the real estate credit line grew 23.3% in 12 months, but Lazari stated that, for the rest of the year, the trend is that the segment will not repeat the same performance, even due to the level at which finds the basic interest rate (Selic).
revised projections
According to Lazari, “in view of the significant changes in the dynamics of the markets where we operate”, with the Ukrainian War and the inflationary pressure on a global scale, the bank promoted a change in the “guidance” (projections) of some financial metrics.
Margin growth with customers went from a range between 8% and 12% to between 18% and 22%, while the expected increase in revenue from services rendered went from 2% to 6% to a range between 4% and 8% .
In the current macroeconomic environment, the spread levels practiced with customers in higher risk and return lines, such as credit cards, overdrafts and revolving credit, have exceeded the bank’s expectations, said the executive.
The estimate for the PDD was from R$ 15 billion to R$ 19 billion for the range between R$ 17 billion and R$ 21 billion. Regarding operating expenses, the guidance changed from 3% to 7% to the range between 1% and 5%.
“The Central Bank has advanced with its monetary policy and we expect to see a deceleration of inflation during the year, but interest rates should remain high for a long period, which should prevent greater GDP growth”, said the president of Bradesco.
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