Scientists expect a doubling of force fractures by 2050 – Why

Osteoporotic hip fracture, already a dangerous problem for the elderly worldwide, is expected to become even more serious for public health in the future, according to a new scientific study that estimates that by 2050 the incidence will almost will double internationally, in part due to the ongoing aging of the world population.

The study raises the alarm about the need for better prevention and treatment, particularly for men and the very elderly over 85 who are most at risk. A person’s chance of having a fracture after 85 is more than twice that of younger age groups.

The researchers, led by Associate Professor Ching-lung Cheung of the University of Hong Kong, who made the announcement at a conference of the American Society of Bone and Mineral Research in Texas, USA, analyzed data from 19 countries on people over 50 which had suffered a fracture in previous years.

It was estimated that, based on existing trends, an increase in hip fractures should be expected in almost all countries (18 out of 19). The largest average annual increases in fractures were recorded in the Netherlands (2.1%) and South Korea (1.2%). By the middle of our century, they are estimated to almost double compared to 2018, with men affected at a higher rate than women.

The United Nations predicts that male life expectancy worldwide will exceed 75 years by 2050, putting an ever-increasing proportion of men at risk of hip fracture. Furthermore, osteoporosis has been underdiagnosed and undertreated in men for years.

The study, according to Dr. Cheung, found that “the use of anti-osteoporosis drugs after hip fracture is 30% to 67% lower in men than in women” (depending on the country). The use of such drugs within the next 12 months after a hip fracture ranged from 11% to 50% (depending on the country).

That’s why Cheung stressed that “more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of hip fractures in men.” The researchers pointed out that the reduction in fractures that has been observed in some countries in recent years (as, among other things, the risk of osteoporosis has become more widely recognized), is not enough to offset the impact of the growing and aging world population, consequently hip fractures to show an upward trend in the future on a global scale.

RES-EMP

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