Opinion – Esper Kallás: What to expect from omicron

The data is still coming in, but the immediate impact the identification of the new omicron variant has made around the world is impressive. Markets have fallen, governments have moved ahead to close borders and many countries have been quickly investigating possible infections with the new variant.

We already realize that it can spread quickly. As of this writing, 41 countries on all continents have identified at least one case of Covid-19 caused by omicron, which attests to its transmission capacity.

Having passed under the radar in several places, it was only detected when the group of Brazilian Túlio de Oliveira, a researcher at the University of Stellenbosch and director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), in South Africa, described the new variant in the province. of Gauteng, which includes the cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria.

Having 32 mutations only in the virus spike is already a matter of much debate. But it is important to say that the fact that a virus has more mutations does not mean that it will be more transmissible or that it will cause disease with different characteristics. Only observation of the Covid-19 cases caused by the variant and its behavior in the transmission chain can provide the answers. Before that, everything will be mere speculation.

So far, preliminary data from South Africa do not point to a more serious disease. According to observation, which is still pending confirmation, it appears that this variant causes a milder form of the disease. Would this variant of the new coronavirus have less capacity for aggression to the host? Too early to say.

Data are still lacking on the effect of antiviral drugs and monoclonal antibodies against the new variant. Preliminary data do not suggest a major change in the action against the new variant, even because the mutations are concentrated in regions of the virus outside the place of action of these drugs.

Some even suggested that the disease caused by the omicron variant could be one of the solutions for the pandemic, as it would work as an attenuated vaccine.

The theory is interesting: if it were more transmissible and did not cause serious illness, it could increase the percentage of people immunized, consequently reducing the pockets of susceptible people that could generate other waves of transmission. However, unfortunately, omicron can lead to severe disease in unvaccinated individuals. Therefore, it cannot and must not be counted on. Efforts must remain focused on expanding vaccination.

The new variant, the fifth considered “of concern” by the WHO (World Health Organization), also serves to warn that this should not be the last of the variants of concern that will emerge. More than that, the chances that others will appear will be greater as long as the vaccination is not made available to the whole world, including countries with limited resources, with broad vaccination coverage, as we are achieving here.

Reactions in Brazil were sometimes marked by surprise, sometimes by a certain hysteria. It is noteworthy how the approach to the subject varies according to ideological and political convictions. People who were against the restrictions are now calling for the cancellation of Carnival, an event scheduled for months to come. Others, with previously restrictive positions, now approve the easing plans without considering the uncertainties brought by the omicron.

For everyone’s safety, however, the suggestion is to be guided by scientific and specialist data, before taking decisions linked to speculation on social media.