Tsiodras: I wish it were simple to end the coronavirus – The 4 scenarios for the future of the pandemic

“Will we put an end to the pandemic? I wish it was that simple. It seems that the emergency phase is beginning to subside. I personally see a beginning. People should be more ready, science better organized, so that we gradually return to normality, with the protection of the sensitive, to give the booster dose, immediately to give treatment when needed, to continue surveillance with our new tools and to do the review, so that we are better prepared for the future, not only in Greece but throughout the world.” Professor Sotiris Tsiodras mentioned the above during his speech, at a seminar on “Epidemics – Pandemics that shocked humanity”, organized by IASO General Clinic.

Mr. Tsiodras analyzed four scenarios for the future

First scenario

Variants will continue to evolve and as time goes by the neutralizing antibodies will decrease to almost zero, he said, adding: We lose the immunity we gained with vaccines and from a previous infection and we have no immunity to the new variants. This means we will need new vaccines and booster doses, he said.

It referred to three hotly debated variants: The BA.2.275.2 strain, which has been detected in 55 countries and 43 states in the US; It is considered the most resistant since it escapes the protection of monoclonal antibodies.

The BA.4.6 strain has been detected in 77 countries and in the USA it registers a percentage of 14%. It is starting to overtake “Omicron”, which is still at high levels.

The HBV strain that has made its presence felt in Singapore and has the greatest immune escape.

The professor expressed his satisfaction with the control of SARS-CoV-2 strains in Greece, most countries do not control strains, he said and the finding is that the “Omicron” variant prevails at 100%, with 98% or sub-variant BA.5. for which there is a vaccine.

Second scenario

Simultaneous circulation of coronavirus and flu which, if it prevails, will affect vulnerable groups, who must be vaccinated, he underlined. However, as Mr. Tsiodras said, it is unlikely that both viruses circulate in huge proportions at the same time, and as we have seen, the coronavirus when it circulates in huge proportions eliminates the flu.

Third scenario

The third scenario has to do with harnessing the weapons of science, vaccines and treatments to deal with Covid-19.

We now know that the benefit of both vaccination and antiviral treatments is huge for people over 65, he stressed.

He reiterated that the three doses of vaccination saved 20 million lives in 2021, with the 4th dose the benefit will be greater.

In Greece, 40,000 lives have been saved by April 2022. The 4th dose of those who have to do it is low, only 15%, and a continuous effort of information is needed. Also, the professor deems it necessary to train the health personnel for the timely administration of the treatment when needed. “We did not walk blindly in this pandemic, we listened to what was happening around us, we are smart enough to act quickly and in constant communication with international organizations.”

The fourth scenario

The mutations remain within the Omicron family, where immunity has been acquired from the vaccine and previous infection.

Societies are gradually returning to normality and as the professor said, we must convince the public that behavior must be adapted to the conditions we live in, respecting the measures required to control the pandemic, with the aim of protecting the vulnerable and the elderly which are still at risk.

“Risk communication needs to be emphasized, it needs experts and partnerships, something we have failed miserably at because we stopped trusting science and trusted our dogma. The main edifice of risk communication is built on trust towards the doctor, the scientist, the expert”, he concluded.

RES-EMP

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