It is certain, based on the data so far, that we have avoided the most unfavorable scenario, that the Omicron variant being at the same time more infectious and more dangerous, that is, that it causes a more serious disease, but we have not yet avoided the risk. This is what Health Policy Professor Elias Mosialos, of the Imperial College and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), points out in a new lengthy Facebook post.
As he states:
– The Omicron will infect much more than the Delta and in a much shorter time (the wave will probably peak in a shorter time and overall the Omicron wave may last less than the Delta)
– In countries like Greece, with unfavorable demographics and several unvaccinated people over the age of 50, even a milder disease than the Delta that will infect more people will put pressure on the health system, and possibly sooner compared to Delta.
– And even more importantly, probably because many will be stuck at the same time, they will need to be isolated for a period of 7-10 days, something that can create malfunctions in services such as education, health, etc.
Mr. Mosialos points to a reversal of the international climate from pessimism to over-optimism and stresses that in public health “we must remain calm and analyze the data carefully.” Summing up what is known so far, he states that the variant is much more contagious and at least three times more contagious than Delta, but the contagion is likely to be much higher in the unvaccinated, as the data we have is from the whole population. We also know that antiviral drugs will continue to be effective and as he says, “I wish we had larger quantities already available, but we do not have them. However, it seems that the majority of therapeutic antibodies (6/8) will not be effective. It remains of GSK and a Chinese in phase III clinical trials “.
As for vaccines, “it seems that Omicron causes more mild infections in vaccinated people compared to Delta. However, if the vaccinations have been given recently, they will be effective in preventing a serious infection. This also seems to be true of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Quite simply, if it were not true we would not be seeing the favorable results we are seeing in England, where half the population has been vaccinated against AZ. I point this out again, because many Greek media have reported that the AZ and J&J vaccines no longer protect us. This may be to prevent a mild infection, but not to prevent a serious infection. The only thing that is certain is that the third dose, regardless of what the vaccines of the first two doses were, builds on the protection offered by the previous doses, whether AZ, Pfizer or Moderna, and multiplies it “.
But what ultimately happens with the disease? Does Omicron cause more serious illness?
“Recent studies in England, Scotland, and South Africa, as well as initial analysis of data from the United States, Norway, Denmark, and Australia, show that those with Omicron are less likely to develop the disease,” he said. to enter the hospital, compared to those who had the disease with the Delta variant “.
But how are these findings justified? According to Mr. Mosialos:
«1. It is possible that the Omicron variant due to mutations has structural changes that eventually the infections can cause milder symptoms.
2. We may see milder symptoms because there is protection for those who have had previous strains or because they have been vaccinated.
3. The demographic characteristics of a population such as in South Africa where the majority were young and had a coronavirus in the past (and also in young people we usually do not usually expect a serious illness) may play a role.
4. All of these can apply at the same time.
To be absolutely sure, we will have to wait and see the analysis, where the evidence of the pathology caused by the unvaccinated by Micron, in people with the same characteristics that had stuck the Delta, have been compared in detail. So we need some more time to know which of these is true. “
He concludes that “the only thing that is certain is that we need calm, proper organization with a rearrangement of the health system, and not panic”.
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