Omicron looks bland, but it’s too soon to know if it will be the definitive variant

The apparent lower lethality of the omicron variant, which appears at a time when vaccination has relatively good coverage in Brazil, seems to reassure the population. The timing, however, may be more complex than expected, with a chance of the emergence of new variants and an increase in the number of deaths.

You, at this point, probably have numerous acquaintances contaminated with Covid. Comments on social media are constant, often accompanied by remarks that symptoms are mild, thanks to vaccines.

Undoubtedly, vaccines have played their role well — at least where they are available in the world — and have reduced the chance of serious cases and deaths. But that doesn’t mean that getting Covid now is something without concern. Far from it.

The omnin expansion is blatant and it reigns over the other variants wherever it goes. Because of the new strain, the world has been registering numbers close to 2 million cases per day, a much higher amount than in previous waves of the disease. And this incredible potential for dissemination comes with risks.

Immediately, it is possible to make a parallel with the beginning of the pandemic, when it was said that the entire population was susceptible to Sars-CoV-2 and, therefore, an avalanche of contamination could occur (which happened) that, logically, would lead to overload. health systems (also happened).

With the passing of the variants, with infected and recovered people, and with vaccines, this fear of macro scale has diminished, but the omicron seems to be doing very well even among vaccinated populations, in addition to having the ability to cause reinfections.

Fernando Spilki, a professor at Feevale University and coordinator of the Corona-Omics Network, of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, highlights that, even if the ômicron causes less serious conditions, the spread is such that it can put pressure on the health system — as already occurs in the US and UK.

“There are some people saying that maybe it’s time to let the virus spread so we have a natural immunity,” says Spilki. “But this will have a very high cost, with hospitalizations and many deaths. And immunity is not lasting, we already know that.”

The director of the WHO (World Health Organization), Tedros Adhanom, also refuted the classification of the variant as mild. “Although the omni appears to be less severe compared to the delta, especially among those vaccinated, this does not mean that it should be classified as mild,” he said. “Like the previous variants, the omicron is hospitalizing and killing people.”

In addition to the immediate issue, there is concern about the impact of the omicron on the course of the pandemic.

“These millions of cases that the omicron is doing is a very large number of opportunities to mutate”, says Spilki.

According to the coordinator of the Corona-omics Network, even though it was recently discovered (it was detected in South Africa at the end of November), it already has four lineages. “Evolution we can’t stop.”

That is, the more people are infected, the more mutations may end up selected and new variants may appear. Will these mutations and variants necessarily be more dangerous? No. But the risks increase as cases go up.

“The ômicron is the solution to the pandemic” was a phrase that circulated recently, recalls Esper Kallás, professor in the department of infectious and parasitic diseases at the USP School of Medicine and columnist for leaf.

“It’s wanting to believe a lot in nature. We don’t know what will come”, says the infectologist.

But, in any case, says Kallás, most of the cases they have seen of Covid – possibly an omicron – in the last few weeks in his office have been milder and have not progressed to hospitalization.

“It looks like the virus has changed,” he says, noting that many patients complain of stuffy noses and sore throats.

In fact, studies in mice, hamsters and human tissues have shown a preference of the variant for the upper airways, with the lungs being somewhat more spared.

According to Kallás, when looking at coronaviruses beyond Sars-CoV-2, they gradually immunized populations, which began to resist infections. Today the persistence of coronavirus in the population is maintained by children who end up with catarrhal syndromes caused by these viruses.

“The omicron might be an evolutionary convergence for something like that,” he says. “We’re basing ourselves on other examples, but that’s not predictable. History is very good at telling the past.”

And with Sars-CoV-2 we see phenomena that were not believed to be possible. The constant mutations of the virus are an example. The USP professor even remembers a column of his in leaf, June 2020, titled “The Stable Virus”. In it he pointed out that the virus was very long and that it would tolerate a limited number of mutations.

The column concluded: “The new coronavirus has not undergone mutations capable of changing its main characteristics during the course of this pandemic. If that happens, it will be an unprecedented event.”

It wasn’t something expected or documented. “How wrong we were”, reflects Kallás, who, at the same time, points out that it is fascinating (although tragic) to observe the adaptive struggle of the virus, the accumulation of mutations that result in changes in the disease, the agent versus host process in a very short period of time.

“To see a virus finding its place within this chain of transmission, for it to position itself as a viable agent in a process of natural selection. It’s extraordinary.”

And now it remains to be seen where the pandemic is going under the omicron reign. Could this be the definitive variant? Something like that was already being speculated about the delta variant, which, according to Spilki, had a number of mutations that resembled those of other, more stable, endemic viruses.

Maurício Lacerda Nogueira, a professor at the Faculty of Medicine of São José do Rio Preto, says that the widespread attack of the omnic in Brazil, added to the advance of vaccination in children and general vaccination, could lead to the famous herd immunity.

According to Nogueira, the omicron, with the large number of mutations it has, could mean the beginning of a process in which Covid becomes a normal pathogen, with seasonal infections and smaller impacts.

“Having a circulation boom along with vaccination rates can help us, as it helped us, in a way, with delta. It didn’t have a significant impact here, because we were coming from intense circulation of the variant. gamma and massive vaccination in the adult population.” But this can also be a very positive view of the scenario, he says.

The virologist makes it clear that this in no way means that people should be contaminated and that his vision is only an analysis of the macro public health perspective.

“But for Zé or Maria who is sick, screw the macro, they are in danger of dying”, he says. “No death is acceptable.”

The experts heard reinforce that it is necessary to stop the circulation of the virus. For this, in addition to vaccination, including for small children, masks and well-ventilated environments cannot be left aside.

“We never had the advent of a virus of this virulence. The amount of people it is capable of killing”, says Spilki. “It’s worrying that we’re not being careful right now.”