Analysis: Datafolha shows the dimension of the Covid ‘elephant’ in Brazil

Understanding the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil and what we will face with the explosive spread of the omicron variant is like describing the legendary elephant that we cannot see.

How many Brazilians had Covid? How many have not been vaccinated yet? How many intend to vaccinate their children? Even these direct questions have more than one answer.

In the parable, an elephant is groped by several blind men who try to describe the animal they did not know. Whoever inspects the trunk thinks it’s a snake, whoever touches its legs thinks it looks like a tree trunk, whoever touches its belly imagines a wall and so on.

All offer a valid but incomplete perspective. Too many deaths, official figures and reports describe the elephant of the pandemic, but each describes only a part.

Now Datafolha brings another part of the pachyderm. Maybe its tail, which looks like a rope that we start pulling and we see that it has a lot more attached to the other end. As a tired population, which is already exposed enough and is vulnerable to the micron.

According to Datafolha, about 42 million Brazilians tested positive for Covid. The official panel of the Ministry of Health, last updated on December 9, 2021, reports almost 20 million fewer positive cases than the survey estimates – according to the press consortium, there were 22.8 million cases so far. Thursday (13).

Another official number, written in a more discreet source, describes the almost 617,000 deaths and the 2.8% lethality of the new coronavirus in Brazil. A lethality three times greater than that estimated for the disease. Which indicates that we had at least three times more cases than the official ones.

Considering the underreporting and that many deaths happened when we already had vaccines being applied, which greatly reduced the lethality of the virus, we must have passed the 100 million Brazilians with Covid.

The difference between Datafolha’s at least 100 million and 42 million may be in our limited testing. In addition to wasting millions of tests, we still only test the most severe cases in many regions. So much so that 70% of respondents declared they had not been contaminated by Covid, a number incompatible with our reality.

The 20 million positive tests that did not make it to our official panel require a major overhaul of the notification system. The unreasonable delay of official figures, outdated for more than a month, is one of the signs of the difficulties that the system that the government has already tried to take down is facing.

Regardless of the closest real elephant description of cases, if we didn’t have vaccines and if all the cured were protected, we could still have at least half a country vulnerable.

Or, looking at this elephant on the other hand, we could still see twice as many deaths if we followed the dream of those who promote contagion as a form of protection in herd immunity.

Fortunately, we vaccinate a lot. According to Datafolha, only 10% of Brazilians aged 16 and over have not yet had two doses of the vaccine. And only 2% have not been vaccinated and do not intend to be vaccinated. A strong sign that our anti-vaccine movement has many non-practitioners who speak ill of the vaccine in public, but have already stamped their vaccination card.

The difference to the estimate of 100% of the vaccinated adult population, recorded in some cities, has explanations. The 100% total is estimated based on the latest Census from 2010. And many cities still have a fluctuating population of workers and visitors that don’t show up in official figures.

Therefore, some official numbers may exceed 100% of adults vaccinated. The 90% of Datafolha may indicate a number closer to the actual vaccinated population.

And they can also indicate the gaps in vaccine coverage, places such as municipalities in the interior of the North region in which, as far as we have figures, less than 40% of the population has been vaccinated.

Another aspect of this elephant indicates that we are entering another dangerous period. According to the survey, about 4 million Brazilians believe they had Covid in the last 30 days.

But another answer is even more intriguing and indicates that this number must be much higher — and that, again, we are in the dark.

More than a quarter of respondents, the equivalent of 50 million Brazilians, claim to have had the flu in the last 30 days. And more than half know a friend or relative who has come down with the flu.

We have a flu epidemic, no doubt about it. But the omicron variant is the fastest-spreading virus mankind has ever seen. It is at least three times more transmissible than the flu. Where the flu can be transmitted, the micron certainly can as well.

The most common symptoms of micron in vaccinees are very similar to those of the flu, such as a runny nose, nasal congestion and a scratchy throat. Probably many have Covid and mistake it for the flu, thanks to the protection that vaccines have brought.

So much so that we live in a paradoxical situation. Since the beginning of the pandemic, according to Datafolha, Brazilians have never gone out so much and so without masks. More than 70% of respondents are already living life normally (12%) or taking care, but leaving for work or other activities (60%).

At the same time, 45% of respondents think the pandemic is out of control, a proportion that has been seen since the first half of 2021. That is, people know that the virus is circulating, but feel protected and safe nonetheless.

So much so that many, almost 40%, gathered on New Year’s Eve with more than six people. A circulation that will still charge an expensive price in hospitalizations.

We are not calm. Despite the protection that vaccinated people still have even against hospitalization by the omicron, if we still have 10% of adults without vaccine, we can expect great damage.

Many children are still not vaccinated and this was a particularly hard hit group where the omicron has already spread.

In the UK, more than 60% of ICU beds are occupied by less than 10% of the population that has not been vaccinated. It is a small portion that did not protect itself and that is suffering more and occupying more of the health system.

Where our unvaccinated adults are, whether scattered across the country or concentrated in regions that are lagging behind in vaccination, they will give SUS work. This elephant may be much bigger than our senses tell us.