About 22% more people have died in Greece in the two years 2020-21 due to the pandemic, compared to the official report (excessive mortality), according to a new global study, the most comprehensive of its kind to date, which was published in the internationally acclaimed medical journal The Lancet.
The study estimates that between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, an estimated 18.2 million people had died from the pandemic, compared with an official estimate of 5.94 million. The official mortality of Covid-19 was 39.2 victims per 100,000 population, while the over-mortality was estimated at 120.3 victims per 100,000 population, so it was at least three times higher.
For Greece in particular, 25,400 victims were estimated against an official toll of 20,800 (as of the date the study took into account). Against the recorded mortality due to Covid-19 in our country 104.1 deaths per 100,000 population, the exaggerated real mortality was estimated at 127.1 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants or 1.22 times (22%) higher.
According to the study, Greece appears to have one of the lowest exaggerated mortality rates in Europe. In comparison, over-mortality in Germany and Croatia was estimated at 1.82 times higher than the official one, in France 1.28 times higher, in Denmark more than three times (3.18 times), in Finland five times (5.03 times), in Poland more than doubled (2.2 times), in Romania doubled (2.03 times), in Albania more than fivefold (5.38 times), while in Bulgaria and Northern Macedonia almost tripled (2.66 and 2.54 times respectively).
The five countries with the highest estimated over-mortality in proportion to their population were Bolivia (734.9 extra deaths from Covid-19 per 100,000 population), Bulgaria (647.3), Eswatini-Swaziland (634.9), Northern Macedonia (583.6) and Lesotho (562.9). In contrast, the five countries with the highest negative surplus mortality (ie, proportionally fewer deaths per pandemic than before the pandemic) were Iceland (-47.8 fewer deaths per 100,000 inhabitants), Australia (-37.6), Singapore (-15.8), New Zealand (-9.3) and Taiwan (-5.9).
South Asia (5.3 million extra deaths) appears to have the highest exaggerated mortality in absolute numbers by the end of 2021, followed by North Africa & the Middle East (1.7 million) and Eastern Europe (1.4 million). . Nationwide, most deaths are estimated in India (4.1 million), the United States (1.1 million), Russia (also 1.1 million), Mexico (798,000), Brazil (792,000) and in Indonesia (736,000).
The researchers said that further study was needed to better understand the extent to which over-mortality is directly due to Covid-19 itself and to what extent indirect effects of the pandemic, such as effects on health services, deaths from other diseases and the wider economic consequences.
Excessive mortality is defined as the difference between the number of deaths from each cause in a given period of time in relation to the expected number of deaths based on the trends of previous years. The calculation in the case of Covid-19, according to the “Lancet” study, led by Associate Professor Heidong Wang of the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, was based on specific models. there is scope for erroneous estimates.
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