Healthcare

Opinion – Pedro Hallal: The promise keeper

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As soon as it appeared, the omicron variant looked like a politician at an election time: it arrived full of promises. First, it promised to be the most transmissible version of the coronavirus so far. In addition, it promised to be less aggressive than previous versions of the virus, and the combination of these factors suggested that the wave of the omicron would be shorter than the previous ones.

But the omicron began to show its differences from the politicians quickly. In a short space of time, she infected a record amount of people, in Brazil and in the world, fulfilling her first promise. Some even said that the omicron would have been the version of a virus that spread rapidly in the history of global health.

This explosive increase in the number of cases turned on the red flag in everyone. If with the low testing capacity in Brazil the numbers were those, imagine what the real numbers are? But, fortunately, the ômicron also fulfilled its second promise: the increase in the number of cases was not accompanied by an increase, in the same proportion, in the number of deaths. A debate then began as to whether this would be a characteristic of the variant (is it really less aggressive?) or a characteristic of the population (would the lower aggressiveness be explained by the higher percentage of vaccinated?).

The truth is that the lower number of deaths caused by the omicron is due to both factors. Studies have shown that, yes, the omicron is actually less aggressive than previous versions of the virus, but it also found a more immunized population, which made life difficult.

The studies quickly multiplied showing that vaccinated people had a much lower risk of mortality from the omicron variant compared to the unvaccinated. In some places, such as the United States, the wave of the omicron became known as the pandemic of the unvaccinated.

The third promise of the omicron was that its waveform would be shorter than those seen for earlier variants. Several researchers ran predictive models and estimated that the omicron wave would be faster. No sooner said than done. After the explosion of cases at the beginning of the year, Brazil has already completed a month of decline in the moving average of deaths.

Does this mean we can celebrate and pretend the pandemic is over?

Of course not. Even in decline, the moving average still records that almost 200 Brazilians die daily from a disease for which there is already a vaccine. If we were acting properly, we could quickly stabilize the moving average in double digits, below 100 deaths a day.

The same ones who lied to the population that Covid-19 was just a little flu…

The same ones who lied that there would be less than 800 deaths in total in Brazil…

The same ones who lied that the pandemic was already over, still in the first half of 2020…

The same ones who refused to wear masks…

The same ones who lied about herd immunity…

The same ones who ran out of oxygen in Manaus…

The same ones who mocked their friends and family who died from shortness of breath…

The same ones who lied that chloroquine and ivermectin solved the problem…

The same ones who lied (and still lie) that the vaccine was experimental…

The same ones who lied that the virus was a project of the new world order…

These same ones keep lying to you, even today.

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