Post-Carnival does not affect the picture, and ICUs for Covid remain empty

The off-season Carnival on the Tiradentes holiday, which took revelers to the streets of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and to the parades in Anhembi and Sapucaí, has so far not impacted the volume of hospitalizations of serious Covid-19 patients in ICUs. .

Only the Federal District and five states —Alagoas, Goiás, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina— had more than 30% of their ICUs with Covid patients last Monday (2). The picture is similar to that of April 11, with six states and the Federal District in this situation.

In Rio de Janeiro, the agglomerations caused by the revelry do not seem to have reflected in hospitalizations.

Public ICU occupancy in the state remains low at 17%, down from the 21% mark recorded on April 11. Today, the number of vacancies (741) is almost half of that time (1,378).

In the state capital, the share of filled beds is higher and reaches 49%, but also with the consideration that the total number of vacancies currently available (223) is almost half of the total two months ago (469). The cases of flu syndrome rose 13% in the last week in the city (from 12,163 to 13,698).

In São Paulo, according to the Secretary of State for Health, the numbers of Covid-19 are not of concern at the moment, due to the high vaccination coverage and the low level of hospitalizations.

According to the folder, the number of hospitalized on Monday (2) was 1,295 patients, between suspected and confirmed, 448 of which were in the ICU. On the same date, the occupancy rate was 20% (there were 2,241 beds for Covid), the same observed on April 11 (there were 2,660 beds for Covid).

Also on this Monday (2) the city of São Paulo had 471 beds for Covid, 175 of which were in operation in the ICU and 30 were hospitalized – 17% occupied. On April 7, 31 patients occupied public Covid-19 ICU beds in the municipality.

For the Municipal Health Department, the epidemiological scenario in the capital is considered stable and with a downward trend. The agency explains that the data on hospitalizations are variable and depend on the previous health condition and the evolution of the disease individually.

Therefore, the increase in hospitalizations in a few days does not necessarily mean a high number of cases. On Monday, the unit with the highest occupancy in intensive care beds was the Hospital Municipal Brasilândia, in the north, with 22%.

On the other hand, if the moving averages of new admissions (ICU + ward) are observed, the scenario is different.

On May 2, the moving average of patients requiring hospitalization in the state of São Paulo reached 174, 15% higher than that recorded on April 11 (151). If compared with that of the 18th of the same month (149), there was a variation of 17%. Compared to April 25 (164), the increase was 6%.

In the capital of São Paulo, the moving average of hospitalized patients reached 75, 10% higher than that recorded on April 11 (68). If compared with that of the 18th of the same month (62), there was a variation of 21%. In relation to that of April 25 (69), the increase was 9%.

The expectation is that the numbers will grow a little more, but not in the magnitude of what was observed in the months of January and February during the peak caused by the omicron.

“Three factors corroborate this increase: the absence of containment policies, the Carnival festivities and the fact that we have several sublines of the omicron competing with each other”, explains Wallace Casaca, coordinator of the SP Covid-19 Info Tracker platform, created by researchers from USP and Unesp with support from Fapesp to monitor the evolution of Covid-19.

“The situation still requires caution, although it is not chaotic. Health care is necessary, especially for risk groups and the elderly, who have returned to the center of attention. It is important that people eligible for the booster dose seek a unit and get the vaccine”, he adds.

North East

Maranhão is one of the northeastern states with the lowest occupancy rate of ICU beds for the treatment of severe cases of Covid. It dropped from 13% on April 11 to 5% this Monday (2). The government kept 60 active beds in this interval.

The constant drop in the number of Covid cases led the Government of Bahia to deactivate 146 ICU beds, from April 11 to May 2. The current occupancy rate is 17% of the 254 available places, compared to 15% of the 400 beds on April 11, according to the State Health Department.

In the capital of Bahia, Salvador, public ICU beds for treating severe cases of the disease fell from 175 to 129. As well as the occupancy rate of beds for adults, which went from 24% to 21%, according to the Secretariat Municipal Health.

In Ceará, 78 ICU beds were disabled by the State Health Department, which made the number of vacancies fall from 107 to 29. The occupancy rate dropped ten percentage points, from 27%, on April 11, to 17%. , this Monday (2), of the vacancies filled.