(News Bulletin 247) – Driven by its luxury heavyweights and a handful of industrial files, the CAC 40 managed to regain 6,500 points on Thursday (+1.27%). A progression to be compared, however, with particularly discreet volumes, especially in the absence of a benchmark in the United Kingdom, busy celebrating the 70th anniversary of the reign of Elizabeth II. Discrete volumes which also betray the difficulty of a market to project itself, due to major uncertainties about growth on both sides of the Atlantic. One of the major determinants will be the degree of aggressiveness of the ECB and the Fed.
The latter will have more to feed its thinking today with the monthly federal report (NFP) on private employment in May. And will therefore be able to more accurately measure the degree of tension on the job market. Investors also had a taste Thursday with the investigation of the private firm in human resources (ADP). Excluding the agricultural sector, the American economy would have created only 128,000 jobs in May, well below expectations. Separately, new weekly jobless claims for week 21 were 200,000, according to the latest Labor Department figures, down 11,000 units.
On the value side, it was the representatives of luxury who once again pulled up the star index with gains of 1.72% to 608.10 euros for LVMH, 2.1% for Kering and Hermès or even 3.1% on L’Oreal. But it is Saint-Gobain which ends the race in the lead with a gain of 4.79% to 57.31 euros after announcing that it expects a double-digit margin for the first six months of 2022. The industrialist is followed by ‘Alstom (+ 4.59% to 26.68 euros).
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0740. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $117.00.
To follow in priority, on the agenda this Friday, the final data of PMI IHS Markit in the Euro Zone at 10:00 am, retail sales in the Euro Zone at 11:00 am and the monthly federal report (NFP) at 2:30 pm. The consensus expects 325,000 job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture) and a monthly increase of 0.4% in average hourly wages.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The major test that we mentioned at the end of last week, namely the confrontation of prices with a bearish slant, is still not finished, in the sense that we do not yet have confirmation, either of a pullback, or reinstatement. Today’s session will be instructive in this regard. The combination of evening star candles, however, invites you to be on your guard. It did not combine yesterday – it was our fear – with a combination of three black soldiers, suggesting a short drift, during which the dynamics of the volumes will be scrutinized.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6602.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6330.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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