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EUR / USD: Persistent imbalance in the balance of power in favor of the greenback


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(News Bulletin 247) – While the trading rooms for the most part closed their doors for Thanksgiving (Wall Street is closed on Thursday and will open for half a session on Friday), the Euro Dollar currency pair continued to suffer, under the cumulative effect of fears of a tightening of restrictive measures to fight against a new wave of contamination, and the confirmed prospect of an increase in the differential of “remuneration” between the two currencies. And this despite a slight hardening of tone from the ECB. In fact, the confirmation to the post of President of the Fed for another 4 years of J. Powell, militated in favor of the Dollar.

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As a reminder, Austria applied the general confinement decided last week on Monday morning. The tone is particularly tough in Germany, where the Minister of Health, Jens Spahn, who did not rule out last week to resort to confinement decisions, went much further in the elements of language. He summed up in a chilling phrase the health situation in his country, faced with a resurgence of the epidemic: the Germans will be “vaccinated, cured or dead” by the end of winter because of the current outbreak of infections. to Covid-19 in the country, which no longer excludes compulsory vaccination. M Veran, French Minister of Health, will speak today at a press conference and will announce new measures to fight the epidemic.

In terms of statistics, traders had to compose with an ultra-rich menu on Wednesday, mainly on the American side. Among the most notable in their deviation from consensus are the downward revision of growth for Q3 to + 2.1%, durable goods orders, which completely missed expectations in their broadest calculation base. , and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, very encouraging on the other hand, below 200,000 new registrations last week. The publication of PCE prices (Personal Consumption Expenditures), the Fed’s preferred measure in its appreciation of inflation, relieved investors, as the indicator did not show a rise above expectations, unlike income dynamics and household spending last month. Finally, the upward revision of the consumer confidence index (U-Mich) will have allowed Wall Street to be supported. Lastly, on the European side, the publication of a slightly stronger decline than expected in the IFO business climate index in Germany, the leading economic power in the Eurozone.

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To follow at 2:30 pm a speech by Christine Lagarde at the opening of the ECB Legal Conference 2021. The opportunity to learn more about Ms. Lagarde’s reaction to inflation.

“The outlook for inflation is determined by supply chain constraints, extreme degrees of liquidity and energy prices.” enlightens Sébastien Galy, Senior Macro Strategist for Nordea AM. “During the pandemic, with many services unavailable, consumers turned to manufactured goods. As a first step, sellers were able to dive into their inventories to meet growing demand before shortages began to appear on the market. part of the global supply chain. Some of the production has already rebounded, but others will take months as investment is needed to increase capacity. “

At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1220$ about.


We clarified on Wednesday 10/11 the following elements, as a reminder: “A break of a fragile support zone at 1.1530 would increase volatility. The working band between $ 1.1530 and $ 1.1675 would then be obsolete.” This zone gave way, with full validation by volatility. The current seller is strengthened, and the consequences are still being expressed. Next bearish target locked at $ 1.1100. As a result, a sharp punctual reaction of protest will have to be considered.


In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

Our entry point is at 1.1220 USD. The price target for our bearish scenario is at 1.1001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.1281 USD.

The expected return on this Forex strategy is 219 pips and the risk of loss is 61 pips.


EUR / USD: Persistent imbalance in the balance of power in favor of the greenback (©

©2021 News Bulletin 247

Source: Tradingsat

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